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Globalization has changed the habitats of various species, resulting in harmful pest invasion. Among these pests, Metcalfa pruinosa has caused worldwide economic and hygienic damage in both urban and agricultural/forested areas. It has been reported that prediction of pest distribution is key to the management of pest prevention. Hence, this study aimed to predict the potential geographic distribution of M. pruinosa under the current climate and under a climate change scenario. CLIMEX, modeling software that analyzes the habitat suitability of a target species based on comprehensive climatic and physiological data, was used mainly to establish a map of predictive distribution of M. pruinosa at present and in the future. Based on our simulations, we predict that M. pruinosa will tend to extend its distribution northward in North America and Europe. We conclude that climate change could result in M. pruinosa invasion in a northward direction, suggesting the need for a thorough system of control and prevention.

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In this study, we analyzed the potential distribution of red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in response to climate change in South Korea using CLIMEX, a species distribution model. We further attempted to evaluate the risk of the distribution/invasion and subsequent dispersion by considering climatic suitability, and functional characteristics of cities and covered cultivated areas. The climatic suitability has extended from the southern and coastal regions to inland regions due to climate change. The number of areas with EI (Ecoclimatic Index) values of more than 20 was 9 (12%) in the current climate; the value was assumed to increase to 23% (2040), 24% (2060), 42% (2080), and 62% (2100) from the South Korea coast to inland. We predicted that May to October would be the most active period in seven domestic high-habitation areas. We also analyzed the invasive risk of the red imported fire ant into covered domestic cultivation areas. Considering climatic suitability, we determined that Jeju, Pohang, Busan, Ulsan, Mokpo, and Gosan would be the most affected areas. This study can provide baseline data for the management of invasive species nationally and for regional control through predictions of the probability of settlement and direction of spread.

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