The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic

Keogh-Brown, Marcus; Wren‐Lewis, Simon; Edmunds, W. John; Beutels, Philippe; Smith, Richard

doi:10.1002/hec.1554

Cited by 160 publications

(145 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(34 reference statements)

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“…The possible closure triggers were a range of SAP thresholds (prevalence in children ages [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], based on the assumption that prevalence in this age group can be Figure 1 School closure policy pathway for high transmission scenarios. The full tree for the 0.5% school-age prevalence closure trigger is shown.…”

Section: School Closure Policies and The Decision Pathwaymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some of these studies demonstrate school closures can have a significant impact on the basic reproduction number and on the overall spread of disease [4-7, 10, 13, 14]. Other studies have estimated the direct economic cost of influenza and school closures and their indirect impacts on the health care system [3,4,[15][16][17][18][19][20]. One advocates, for example, 26 weeks of school closure in conjunction with other policies [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

et al. 2012

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Background Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP) and closure durations. Results Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000), we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP) with the longest duration closure (24 weeks) considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates). Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.

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Section: School Closure Policies and The Decision Pathwaymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

et al. 2012

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“…Using micro-macro simulation models, Keogh-Brown et al (2010) analyse the possible impact of an exhaustive influenza on the UK economy. A severe scenario like the Spanish flu, with more than one percent of the population dying, is estimated to yield an impact of more than 20 per cent loss of GDP in the first pandemic quarter, and more than 4 per cent 11 loss of GDP in the first year.…”

Section: Empirical Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger? The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden

Karlsson¹,

Nilsson

Pichler

2012

SSRN Journal

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We study the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on economic performance in Sweden. The pandemic was one of the severest and deadliest pandemics in human history, but it has hitherto received only scant attention in the economic literature -despite important implications for modern-day pandemics. In this paper, we exploit seemingly exogenous variation in incidence rates between Swedish regions to estimate the impact of the pandemic. Using differencein-differences and high-quality administrative data from Sweden, we estimate the effects on earnings, capital returns and poverty. We find that the pandemic led to a significant increase in poverty rates. There is also relatively strong evidence that capital returns were negatively affected by the pandemic. On the other hand, we find robust evidence that the influenza had no discernible effect on earnings. This finding is surprising since it goes against most previous empirical studies as well as theoretical predictions.

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“…The duration of absence due to influenza, like the previous parameters, has three possibilities: low (4 days), moderate (5 days), high (6 days), and absence does not allow for weekends but assumes all days lost are working days. A 264‐day working year is/was assumed (resulting from a 6‐day working week) which differs from the 5‐day working week assumed for the UK in the previous studies 3, 7, 8. This proxies the greater importance of the grey/informal labour sector in developing countries.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda

Smith

Keogh-Brown

2013

Influenza Resp Viruses

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BackgroundResearch has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high‐income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower‐ and middle‐income countries.ObjectivesTo estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009.MethodsA single‐country whole‐economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure.ResultsOverall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour‐intensive sectors suffer the largest losses.ConclusionThe economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low‐income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.

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The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic

Cited by 160 publications

References 27 publications

Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger? The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden

Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda

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