“…In this study, we analyze the GPS and seismic data recorded in recent years, i.e. decadal datasets of continuous instrumental measurements, data that is uncommon for calderas worldwide 27 .…”
Section: The Ground Displacement and Seismic Datasets Collected In Cfcmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Hazard assessment is thus particularly critical 15 , 22 , 86 , 103 , and the interaction of the active magmatic and hydrothermal systems complicates the interpretation of monitoring data 26 . Figure 1 ( a ) Campi Flegrei caldera GPS monitoring network (small squares, 21 permanent stations + 4 buoys offshore) 27 . Background map modified from the INGV periodic bulletin of Campi Flegrei 8 .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“… ( a ) Campi Flegrei caldera GPS monitoring network (small squares, 21 permanent stations + 4 buoys offshore) 27 . Background map modified from the INGV periodic bulletin of Campi Flegrei 8 .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this study, we tackle the problem of the mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data by considering the most complete instrumental catalogs of ground displacement and earthquakes in CFc, up to 31/12/2020 27 , 54 , 67 . The main target of our study is measuring and modeling the main features of the geophysical monitoring signals described in terms of temporal rates, Fourier analysis and differential modeling of nonlinear acceleration.…”
Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data in the instrumental catalogs from 2000 to 2020, and a comparison of them to the preceding data from 1983 to 1999. We clearly identify and characterize two overlying trends, i.e. a decennial-like acceleration and cyclic oscillations with various periods. In particular, we show that all the signals have been accelerating since 2005, and 90–97% of their increase has occurred since 2011, 40–80% since 2018. Nevertheless, the seismic and ground deformation signals evolved differently—the seismic count increased faster than the GPS data since 2011, and even more so since 2015, growing faster than an exponential function The ground deformation has a linearized rate slope, i.e. acceleration, of 0.6 cm/yr2 and 0.3 cm/yr2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively for the vertical (RITE GPS) and the horizontal (ACAE GPS) components. In addition, all annual rates show alternating speed-ups and slow-downs, consistent between the signals. We find seven major rate maxima since 2000, one every 2.8–3.5 years, with secondary maxima at fractions of the intervals. A cycle with longer period of 6.5–9 years is also identified. Finally, we apply the probabilistic failure forecast method, a nonlinear regression that calculates the theoretical time limit of the signals going to infinity (interpreted here as a critical state potentially reached by the volcano), conditional on the continuation of the observed nonlinear accelerations. Since 2000, we perform a retrospective analysis of the temporal evolution of these forecasts which highlight the periods of more intense acceleration. The failure forecast method applied on the seismic count from 2001 to 2020 produces upper time limits of [0, 3, 11] years (corresponding to the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles, respectively), significantly shorter than those based on the GPS data, e.g. [0, 6, 21] years. Such estimates, only valid under the model assumption of continuation of the ongoing decennial-like acceleration, warn to keep the guard up on the future evolution of Campi Flegrei caldera.
“…In this study, we analyze the GPS and seismic data recorded in recent years, i.e. decadal datasets of continuous instrumental measurements, data that is uncommon for calderas worldwide 27 .…”
Section: The Ground Displacement and Seismic Datasets Collected In Cfcmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Hazard assessment is thus particularly critical 15 , 22 , 86 , 103 , and the interaction of the active magmatic and hydrothermal systems complicates the interpretation of monitoring data 26 . Figure 1 ( a ) Campi Flegrei caldera GPS monitoring network (small squares, 21 permanent stations + 4 buoys offshore) 27 . Background map modified from the INGV periodic bulletin of Campi Flegrei 8 .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“… ( a ) Campi Flegrei caldera GPS monitoring network (small squares, 21 permanent stations + 4 buoys offshore) 27 . Background map modified from the INGV periodic bulletin of Campi Flegrei 8 .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this study, we tackle the problem of the mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data by considering the most complete instrumental catalogs of ground displacement and earthquakes in CFc, up to 31/12/2020 27 , 54 , 67 . The main target of our study is measuring and modeling the main features of the geophysical monitoring signals described in terms of temporal rates, Fourier analysis and differential modeling of nonlinear acceleration.…”
Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data in the instrumental catalogs from 2000 to 2020, and a comparison of them to the preceding data from 1983 to 1999. We clearly identify and characterize two overlying trends, i.e. a decennial-like acceleration and cyclic oscillations with various periods. In particular, we show that all the signals have been accelerating since 2005, and 90–97% of their increase has occurred since 2011, 40–80% since 2018. Nevertheless, the seismic and ground deformation signals evolved differently—the seismic count increased faster than the GPS data since 2011, and even more so since 2015, growing faster than an exponential function The ground deformation has a linearized rate slope, i.e. acceleration, of 0.6 cm/yr2 and 0.3 cm/yr2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively for the vertical (RITE GPS) and the horizontal (ACAE GPS) components. In addition, all annual rates show alternating speed-ups and slow-downs, consistent between the signals. We find seven major rate maxima since 2000, one every 2.8–3.5 years, with secondary maxima at fractions of the intervals. A cycle with longer period of 6.5–9 years is also identified. Finally, we apply the probabilistic failure forecast method, a nonlinear regression that calculates the theoretical time limit of the signals going to infinity (interpreted here as a critical state potentially reached by the volcano), conditional on the continuation of the observed nonlinear accelerations. Since 2000, we perform a retrospective analysis of the temporal evolution of these forecasts which highlight the periods of more intense acceleration. The failure forecast method applied on the seismic count from 2001 to 2020 produces upper time limits of [0, 3, 11] years (corresponding to the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles, respectively), significantly shorter than those based on the GPS data, e.g. [0, 6, 21] years. Such estimates, only valid under the model assumption of continuation of the ongoing decennial-like acceleration, warn to keep the guard up on the future evolution of Campi Flegrei caldera.
“…The Campi Flegrei volcano hosts a highly advanced, permanent multiparametric monitoring system (Bianco et al., 2022), including a dense seismic network (Figure 1a). A series of ground uplift‐subsidence episodes ( bradyseism ) associated with seismic activity affected the central area of Pozzuoli since the early 1950s (Del Gaudio et al., 2010), with the two most rapid uplift phases occurring in 1970–72 and 1982–84, producing over 20,000 shallow earthquakes during the 1982–84 crisis (D'Auria et al., 2011).…”
In the past two decades, the central portion of Campi Flegrei caldera has experienced ground uplift up to 15 mm/month, with an increase of rate, magnitude and extent of the seismicity. In this work, we perform multi‐scale precise earthquake relocation of the 2014–2024 seismicity, mapping in detail activated fault zones. We relate the geometry, extent, and depth of these zones with up‐to‐date structural reconstructions of the caldera. The current seismicity is mainly driven by ground‐uplift‐induced stress concentration on pre‐existing, weaker fault zones, some of which identified for the first time. These structures are not only related to the inner caldera and dome resurgence but also to volcano‐tectonic events of the last 10 ka. The extent of imaged fault segments suggests they can accommodate ruptures up to a moment magnitude 5.1, significantly increasing seismic hazard in the area.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
