The perceived landfall location of evacuees from Hurricane Gustav

Abstract

Hurricane evacuations in the United States are costly, chaotic, and sometimes unnecessary. Many coastal residents consider evacuation after viewing a forecasted graphic of where the storm is anticipated to make landfall. During the evacuation process, hurricane tracks commonly deviate from the forecasted landfall track and many evacuees may not pay attention to these track deviations after evacuating. Frequently, a disconnect may occur between the actual landfall track, the official forecasted track, and the perceived track of each individual as they made their evacuation decision. Specifically for evacuees, a shift in track may decrease the hazards associated with a landfalling hurricane since evacuees perceive their threat level to be high at the time of evacuation. Using survey data gathered during the evacuation from Hurricane Gustav (2008) in coastal Louisiana (USA), we calculated a type of Z-score to measure the distance error between each evacuee's perceived landfall location and the actual landfall location from each evacuee's home zip code. Results indicate a personal landfall bias in the direction of home zip code for evacuees of three metropolitan regions. Evacuees from the greater New Orleans area displayed the highest error, followed by evacuees from greater Lafayette. Furthermore, we validate the authenticity of the previous results by employing two additional methods of error assessment. A large regional error score might possibly be a predictor of evacuation complacency for a future hurricane of similar magnitude, although there are many other variables that must be considered.

Pre-landfall evacuee perception of the meteorological hazards associated with Hurricane Gustav

“…In many instances during the survey process, evacuees from the greater New Orleans area stated that their experience during and immediately after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and the impact of storm surge in particular, was a factor in determining the proper time to evacuate. Similar to the results of Senkbeil et al (2009), 83% of evacuees surveyed from the New Orleans region stated their decision to leave was influenced in part by their experience with Katrina. The impact of Katrina was less for evacuees from the Houma region, with 48% of participants stating Katrina factored into their evacuation decision.…”

“…Using this sampling method, evacuees stopping at each rest stop were approached at random by a member of the survey team at various locations on the grounds of the rest stop, with every effort made to ensure only one member of a vehicle or caravan of vehicles was surveyed. In addition to the questions related to the meteorological hazards of Hurricane Gustav, evacuees were asked to include additional information which was used by Senkbeil et al (2009) to assess the relationship between the perceived versus actual landfall of Hurricane Gustav. Evacuees were also asked to include their home zip code to geo-locate the survey participant's responses.…”

“…Similar to Senkbeil et al (2009), 30 surveys were selected at random from the completed surveys in each three-digit zip code region. A random sample of 30 from each zip code region allowed for an analysis with equal group membership while removing any bias associated with a convenience sample.…”

“…Interestingly, approximately 20% of the respondents said previous experience with Hurricane Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was more of a factor than experience with Hurricane Katrina, likely a result of hurricane passage directly over (with Andrew) or to the west (with Rita) of the Lafayette region. This may also be one of the reasons why, according to Senkbeil et al (2009), the average time of evacuation decision was 63 h prior to landfall versus 45 h for Houma.…”

Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis

“…Given that hurricanes can cause widespread destruction, efficient evacuation strategies are critical for saving lives. Many recent studies have examined evacuation behaviors of residents in response to hurricanes (e.g., Arlikatti et al 2006;Cutter and Finch 2008;Kang et al 2007;Kusenbach et al 2010;Senkbeil et al 2010;Smith and McCarty 2009;Zhang et al 2007). These studies have shown that hurricanerelated conditions such as intensity and projected track and personal attributes (i.e., experiencing false alarms, owning pets, income, and age) affect the perceptions of risk and evacuation decisions of residents.…”