Climate change is impacting agro-ecosystems, crops, and farmer livelihoods in communities worldwide. While it is well understood that more frequent and intense climate events in many areas are resulting in a decline in crop yields, the impact on crop quality is less acknowledged, yet it is critical for food systems that benefit both farmers and consumers through high-quality products. This study examines tea (Camellia sinensis; Theaceae), the world's most widely consumed beverage after water, as a study system to measure effects of seasonal precipitation variability on crop functional quality and associated farmer knowledge, preferences, and livelihoods. Sampling was conducted in a major tea producing area of China during an extreme drought through the onset of the East Asian Monsoon in order to capture effects of extreme climate events that are likely to become more frequent with climate change. Compared to the spring drought, tea growth during the monsoon period was up to 50% higher. Concurrently, concentrations of catechin and methylxanthine secondary metabolites, major compounds that determine tea functional quality, were up to 50% lower during the monsoon while total phenolic concentrations and antioxidant activity increased. The inverse relationship between tea growth and concentrations of individual secondary metabolites suggests a dilution effect of precipitation on tea quality. The decrease in concentrations of tea secondary metabolites was accompanied by reduced farmer preference on the basis of sensory characteristics as well as a decline of up to 50% in household income from tea sales. Farmer surveys indicate a high degree of agreement regarding climate patterns and the effects of precipitation on tea yields and quality. Extrapolating findings from this seasonal study to long-term climate scenario projections suggests that farmers and consumers face variable implications with forecasted precipitation scenarios and calls for research on management practices to facilitate climate adaptation for sustainable crop production.

Climate change is impacting food and beverage crops around the world with implications for environmental and human well-being. While numerous studies have examined climate change effects on crop yields, relatively few studies have examined effects on crop quality (concentrations of nutrients, minerals, and secondary metabolites). This review article employs a culturally relevant beverage crop, tea ( Camelia sinensis ), as a lens to examine environmental effects linked to climate change on the directionality of crop quality. Our systematic review identified 86 articles as relevant to the review question. Findings provide evidence that shifts in seasonality, water stress, geography, light factors, altitude, herbivory and microbes, temperature, and soil factors that are linked to climate change can result in both increases and decreases up to 50% in secondary metabolites. A gap was found regarding evidence on the direct effects of carbon dioxide on tea quality, highlighting a critical research area for future study. While this systematic review provides evidence that multiple environmental parameters are impacting tea quality, the directionality and magnitude of these impacts is not clear with contradictory evidence between studies likely due to confounding factors including variation in tea variety, cultivar, specific environmental and agricultural management conditions, and differences in research methods. The environmental factors with the most consistent evidence in this systematic review were seasonality and water stress with 14 out of 18 studies (78%) demonstrating a decrease in concentrations of phenolic compounds or their bioactivity with a seasonal shift from the spring and /or first tea harvest to other seasons and seven out of 10 studies (70%) showing an increase in levels of phenolic compounds or their bioactivity with drought stress. Herbivory and soil fertility were two of the variables that showed the greatest contradictory evidence on tea quality. Both herbivory and soil fertility are variables which farmers have the greatest control over, pointing to the importance of agricultural management for climate mitigation and adaptation. The development of evidence-based management strategies and crop breeding programs for resilient cultivars are called for to mitigate climate impacts on crop quality and overall risk in agricultural and food systems.

Though most hurricane evacuation studies have focused on residents, tourists are also a vulnerable population. To assess their perceptions of risk and evacuation likelihood under different hurricane conditions, we surveyed 448 tourists visiting central Florida. Respondents viewed four maps emulating track forecast cones produced by the National Hurricane Center and text information featuring variations of storm intensity, coast of landfall, centerline position relative to the survey site, time until landfall, and event duration. We performed chi-square tests to determine which hurricane conditions, and aspects of tourists such as their demographics and previous hurricane experience, most likely influenced their ratings of risk and evacuation likelihood for respondents located on Pinellas County beaches or inland near Orlando, FL. Highly rated scenarios featured a Category 4 hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast with the centerline passing over the sampling site. Overall, tourists that indicated the highest risk and evacuation ratings were not previously affected by a hurricane, had a trip duration of less than 6 days, and had checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike before departure. However, results for other tourist attributes differed between tourists in coastal and inland locations. We found that although somewhat knowledgeable about hurricanes, tourists misinterpreted the track

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to associate with variability of tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories in the southwestern Indian Ocean. However, consideration of ENSO phase alone does not account for all variability of TC tracks within this region. This study demonstrates that the subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) sea-surface temperature anomaly pattern is also significantly associated with variability in southwestern Indian Ocean TC tracks. Hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to group TC trajectories by their initial and final positions. Median monthly values of the Niño-3.4 index and Subtropical Dipole Index corresponding to the life cycles of TCs in each group are compared using non-parametric analysis of variance. The results suggest that both ENSO and SIOD are significantly associated with different types of southwestern Indian Ocean TC trajectories. Furthermore, significant interactions of ENSO and SIOD phases are found to influence certain types of TC tracks using contingency table tests. During simultaneous warm ENSO and negative SIOD phases, TCs moving across the southwestern Indian Ocean tend to follow more southward or southeastward tracks. During neutral or cool ENSO and positive SIOD phases, TCs moving through the southwestern Indian Ocean tend toward more westward trajectories. These findings suggest that use of an SIOD index in addition to an ENSO index could improve intraseasonal to seasonal statistical prediction of southwestern Indian basin TC activity.

When a hurricane undergoes extratropical transition (ET), its rainbands evolve from a circular and compact shape to a more elongated, fragmented, and dispersed configuration with an exposed circulation center. This study calculates five metrics to measure these spatial changes in reflectivity regions as Hurricane Isabel (2003) underwent ET. A mosaic of observations from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network is compared to reflectivity simulated by the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model. Six simulations are performed by varying the cumulus and microphysics parameterizations to produce a range of reflectivity configurations. A bias correction is applied to model-simulated reflectivity prior to the calculation of spatial metrics because lower reflectivity values are generally underrepresented, while higher values are generally overrepresented. However, the simulation with Kain–Fritsch cumulus and Morrison two-moment microphysics overpredicts reflectivity by 3–4 dBZ at all levels. We demonstrate that the spatial metrics effectively capture structural changes as reflectivity regions became more fragmented and dispersed and the center became more exposed. In this case study, the results were more sensitive to the choice of cumulus physics, compared with the choice of microphysics. The Kain–Fritsch simulations produce shapes that are too circular and solid when compared with WSR-88D observations, as the hurricanes lack distinct outer rainbands. Simulations with Tiedtke cumulus produce an elongated main reflectivity region as in WSR-88D, but with separate inner and outer rainbands that are too dispersed and fragmented. These results demonstrate the value in measuring spatial patterns rather than assessing model performance using visual inspection alone.

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Although tropical cyclones (TCs) forming in the Mozambique Channel are relatively close to land and have affected vulnerable populations, few studies specifically examine these storms. This study analysed formation frequency and location and storm motion during 1948–2010. A geographic information system was employed to calculate storm trajectory and determine whether or not landfall occurred. Reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR were examined to identify environmental conditions such as 500 hPa geopotential heights and precipitable water. Nonparametric statistical tests explored relationships between these conditions, TC attributes, and four teleconnections known to influence circulation patterns in the greater Southwest Indian Ocean: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Results show that 94 TCs formed in the channel, with approximately 50% making landfall. Formation frequency varied under different phases of the SAM, IOSD, and MJO. Findings differed when the study period was divided into half, suggesting that inclusion of data prior to 1979 be interpreted cautiously. During the second period, formation tended to occur in the northern (southern) portion of the channel when the IOSD and SAM were negative (positive). The MJO and SAM were associated with differences in precipitable water values, while the MJO and IOSD were associated with track curvature. Geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa varied under the three phases of ENSO.