The path to international medals: A supervised machine learning approach to explore the impact of coach-led sport-specific and non-specific practice

Abstract

Research investigating the nature and scope of developmental participation patterns leading to international senior-level success is mainly explorative up to date. One of the criticisms of earlier research was its typical multiple testing for many individual participation variables using bivariate, linear analyses. Here, we applied state-of-the-art supervised machine learning to investigate potential non-linear and multivariate effects of coach-led practice in the athlete's respective main sport and in other sports on the achievement of international medals. Participants were matched pairs (sport, sex, age) of adult international medallists and non-medallists (n = 166). Comparison of several non-ensemble and treebased ensemble binary classification algorithms identified "eXtreme gradient boosting" as the best-performing algorithm for our classification problem. The model showed fair discrimination power between the international medallists and non-medallists. The results indicate that coach-led other-sports practice until age 14 years was the most important feature. Furthermore, both main-sport and other-sports practice were non-linearly related to international success. The amount of main-sport practice displayed a parabolic pattern while the amount of other-sports practice displayed a saturation pattern. The findings question excess involvement in specialised coach-led main-sport practice at an early age and call for childhood/adolescent engagement in coach-led practice in various sports. In data analyses, combining traditional statistics with advanced supervised machine learning may improve both testing of the robustness of findings and new discovery of patterns among multivariate relationships of variables, and thereby of new hypotheses.

Predictors of Junior Versus Senior Elite Performance are Opposite: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Participation Patterns

“…The findings were robust across different types of sports and were also consistent with results from original studies that involved control for potential confounds through matched-pairs design, multi-year longitudinal quasi-experiments, and multivariate linear and non-linear analyses [ 24 , 25 , 27 , 28 , 46 – 48 ].…”

“…Among empirical studies examining predictors of sports performance, an analysis of the samples revealed wide ranges of age categories (juniors, seniors), types of sports, and performance levels (local to Olympic competition level). Furthermore, past studies typically analysed effects of predictor variables separately and did not consider potential associations between effects of different predictors, with a few exceptions [24][25][26][27][28].…”

The nature of formative physical activities and sports in the development of senior volleyball players

“…Specifically considering participation in FAL activities, HS male participants were involved in more activities compared to their LS counterparts. These findings are consistent with the theoretical tenets of the DMSP 18 and numerous retrospective studies on team sports that empirically evidenced that elite players engage extensively in various sports, before specializing in the main sport 1,25,[46][47][48] . The findings also support the theoretical proposal of Côté and colleagues 16,18 suggesting that early diversification does not hinder elite sport participation in sports where peak performance is reached after maturation, as observed in the majority of team sports.…”

Age of Early Specialization, Competitive Volume, Injury, and Sleep Habits in Youth Sport: A Preliminary Study of US Youth Basketball

“…14 In fact, much of the existing literature indicates that early sport specialization is not a predictor of success and may even impede long-term achievement in some sports. [2][3][4]7,15,16,18,20,22,27,28,37 For some young athletes, the youth sport experience involves nearly continuous year-round participation in a single sport, frequent travel, and regular competitive events that can feature a number of games played over a short period of time, all in addition to the demands of academic work and family and community commitments. This may leave youth athletes with limited time for rest or peer socialization outside of sport and may also negatively affect nutrition and sleep.…”

“…14 In fact, much of the existing literature indicates that early sport specialization is not a predictor of success and may even impede long-term achievement in some sports. 2 - 4 , 7 , 15 , 16 , 18 , 20 , 22 , 27 , 28 , 37 …”