The past, current, and future distribution modeling of four water lilies (Nymphaea) in Africa indicates varying suitable habitats and distribution in climate change

Nzei, John M.; Ngarega, Boniface K.; Mwanzia, Virginia M.; Musili, Paul M.; Wang, Qingfeng; Chen, Jin‐Ming

doi:10.1016/j.aquabot.2021.103416

Cited by 24 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The inclusion of environmental factors can improve ecological studies of different organisms and ecosystems while monitoring their biological implications has application in the development of environmental-conscious policies (Wu et al, 2022). Ecological niche models (ENMs) have been used to explore the role of ecology on the current and future distribution of aquatic species (Nzei et al, 2021;Ngarega et al, 2022). Traditional ENMs assumed that populations of a species are genetically uniform and share the same niche, ignoring the possibility of local adaptation, especially for widespread species (Wiens et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic structure of wild rice Zizania latifolia in an expansive heterogeneous landscape along a latitudinal gradient

Wagutu

Fan

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Global aquatic habitats are undergoing rapid degradation and fragmentation as a result of climate change and changes in land use. Understanding the genetic variability and adaptive potential of aquatic plant species is thus important for conservation purposes. In this study, we investigated the genetic diversity and structure of the extant natural populations of Zizania latifolia from five river basins in China based on 46 microsatellite markers. We tested isolation by environment (IBE), isolation by resistance (IBR), and isolation by distance (IBD) patterns using a reciprocal causal model (RCM). Furthermore, we elucidated the impact of the environment on Z. latifolia genetic diversity using generalized linear models (GLMs) and spatially explicit mixed models. Low genetic diversity (HE = 0.125–0.433) and high genetic differentiation (FST = 0.641, Øpt = 0.654) were found. Higher historical gene flow (MH = 0.212–2.354) than contemporary gene flow (MC = 0.0112–0.0247) and significant bottlenecks in almost all populations were identified, highlighting the negative impact of wetland fragmentation. The IBE model was exclusively supported for all populations and in three river basins. The IBD and IBR models were supported in one river basin each. The maximum temperature of the warmest month and precipitation seasonality were the plausible environmental parameters responsible for the observed pattern of genetic diversity. Local adaptation signatures were found, with nine loci identified as outliers, four of which were gene-linked and associated with environmental variables. Based on these findings, IBE is more important than IBD and IBR in shaping the genetic structure of Z. latifolia.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic structure of wild rice Zizania latifolia in an expansive heterogeneous landscape along a latitudinal gradient

Wagutu

Fan

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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“…Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are the most frequently used technique for predicting the impact of future climate change on species' ranges and distributions. ENMs are used to forecast current and future environmental suitability and provide recommendations for identifying priority areas for protection (Tiamiyu et al, 2021), management, and conservation of species (Nzei et al, 2021), and restoration of habitats (Johnson et al, 2017; Zwiener et al, 2017). As the effects of climate change intensify, the capacity of a species to colonize new suitable habitat is dependent on the individuals' dispersal ability, landing in appropriate habitat, and stable population establishment (Angert et al, 2011; Wolf et al, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This decline threatens aquatic plants because aquatic ecosystems and obligate aquatic plants are inextricably linked. Understanding the appropriate habitat and distribution of aquatic species is required to examine the magnitude of climate change and its ramifications for species decline or increase (Nzei et al, 2021). However, one of the most challenging tasks in ecology is predicting which species will coexist in future and where they will occur (Wisz et al, 2013).…”

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confidence: 99%

The potential distributions of African Azolla species and their implications for African wetland ecosystems for the future

Karichu

Ngarega

Onjalalaina

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change is expected to be the primary cause of biodiversity loss in the future (Bellard et al., 2012;Velazco et al., 2019). Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are the most frequently used technique for predicting the impact of future climate change on species' ranges and distributions. ENMs are used to forecast current and future environmental suitability and provide recommendations for identifying priority areas for protection (Tiamiyu et al., 2021), management, and conservation of species (Nzei et al., 2021), and restoration of habitats (Johnson et al., 2017;Zwiener et al., 2017). As the effects of climate change intensify, the capacity of a species to colonize new

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“…Several studies on animals, plants, insects, amphibians, reptiles, and invasive species have indicated habitat contraction or shift as a result of climate change [ 26 , 27 ]. Previous studies focusing on Ottelia and Nymphaea species in Africa have reported the variable change of suitable areas under climate change [ 28 , 29 ]. In this climate-change-prone environment, the wild populations of Nymphaea have declined significantly from the effects of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological Niche Modeling of Water Lily (Nymphaea L.) Species in Australia under Climate Change to Ascertain Habitat Suitability for Conservation Measures

Nzei

Mwanzia

Ngarega

et al. 2022

Plants

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The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a global temperature rise of 4.3 ± 0.7 °C by 2100 and an extinction of 8.5% in one out of every six species. Australia’s aquatic ecosystem is no exception; habitat loss, fragmentation, and loss of biodiversity are being experienced. As the center for Nymphaea species distribution, it presents the culturally, ecologically, and scientifically important genus as the best candidate for habitat suitability assessment in climate change, whose habitat suitability is presumed to decline. The models were run according to the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, using one general circulation model (GCM). Projections were made for the current, past, and future in medium (4.5) and high (8.5) representative concentration pathways. Significantly, bio2 and bio15 were highly preferred among the species. Less distribution was noted in West Australia compared to the north, east, and south of the continent, while north of the continent in Western Australia, Northern Territory, and Queensland indicate more habitat contractions compared to the east and southeast of Queensland and New South Wales, although it receives high precipitation. Generally, the species respond variably to both temperature and precipitation variables which is a key species response factor for planners and decision makers in species habitat and biodiversity conservation.

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The past, current, and future distribution modeling of four water lilies (Nymphaea) in Africa indicates varying suitable habitats and distribution in climate change

Cited by 24 publications

References 41 publications

Genetic structure of wild rice Zizania latifolia in an expansive heterogeneous landscape along a latitudinal gradient

Genetic structure of wild rice Zizania latifolia in an expansive heterogeneous landscape along a latitudinal gradient

The potential distributions of African Azolla species and their implications for African wetland ecosystems for the future

Ecological Niche Modeling of Water Lily (Nymphaea L.) Species in Australia under Climate Change to Ascertain Habitat Suitability for Conservation Measures

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