Ecological Niche Modeling of Water Lily (Nymphaea L.) Species in Australia under Climate Change to Ascertain Habitat Suitability for Conservation Measures

Abstract

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a global temperature rise of 4.3 ± 0.7 °C by 2100 and an extinction of 8.5% in one out of every six species. Australia’s aquatic ecosystem is no exception; habitat loss, fragmentation, and loss of biodiversity are being experienced. As the center for Nymphaea species distribution, it presents the culturally, ecologically, and scientifically important genus as the best candidate for habitat suitability assessment in climate change, whose habitat suitability is presumed to decline. The models were run according to the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, using one general circulation model (GCM). Projections were made for the current, past, and future in medium (4.5) and high (8.5) representative concentration pathways. Significantly, bio2 and bio15 were highly preferred among the species. Less distribution was noted in West Australia compared to the north, east, and south of the continent, while north of the continent in Western Australia, Northern Territory, and Queensland indicate more habitat contractions compared to the east and southeast of Queensland and New South Wales, although it receives high precipitation. Generally, the species respond variably to both temperature and precipitation variables which is a key species response factor for planners and decision makers in species habitat and biodiversity conservation.

Distributional Response of the Rare and Critically Endangered Ilex nanchuanensis to Climate Change in East Asia

“…In addition, the distribution range of I. nanchuanensis is projected to shrink in the future periods, especially the 2070s, with the total suitable area being reduced the most under RCP6 and the least under RCP4.5, which is similar to the findings of other studies on rare and endangered species in China, such as ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba) and Taiwan fir [90,91] . This is closely related to the phenomenon of climate warming in the future, with studies finding a global temperature increase of 1.3°C by 2050 and a minimum global temperature increase of 2.2°C by 2070 [5,92] . This study found that the optimum range for the hottest monthly minimum temperature (Bio6), the most important climatic factor affecting I. nanchuanensis, is −30°C to 25°C, and that extreme weather and global warming have made it difficult for the species to survive better locally, which is one of the main reasons for the migration of I. nanchuanensis to the northwest in the coming period.…”