The Pacific quasi‐decadal oscillation (QDO): An important precursor toward anticipating major flood events in the Missouri River Basin?

Abstract

Measurements taken by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites indicated a continued water storage increase over the Missouri River Basin (MRB) prior to the 2011 flood event. An analysis of the major hydrologic variables in the MRB, i.e., those of soil moisture, streamflow, groundwater storage, and precipitation, show a marked variability at the 10-15 year time scale coincident with the water storage increase. A climate diagnostic analysis was conducted to determine what climate forcing conditions preceded the long-term changes in these variables. It was found that precipitation over the MRB undergoes a profound modulation during the transition points of the Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation and associated teleconnections. The results infer a prominent teleconnection forcing in driving the wet/dry spells in the MRB, and this connection implies persistence of dry conditions for the next 2 to 3 years.

Gridded Snow Water Equivalent Reconstruction for Utah Using Forest Inventory and Analysis Tree-Ring Data

“…The year 1934 was one of the strongest regional drought years in Utah, often used as the drought year-of-record in water management, which coincided with the Dust Bowl era. This result indicates that ENSO forcing can be modulated by the larger-scale and stronger effects linked with PC1 or the Pacific QDO's transition phases, as was the case proposed for the Dust Bowl [42], and record floods in northern Utah [49] and the Missouri River Basin [50]. Indeed, the significant correlation of PC1 to IP at a lag of six years is consistent with the transition-phase teleconnection presented by Wang et al [47].…”

Feasibility of Multi-Year Forecast for the Colorado River Water Supply: Time Series Modeling

“…Meanwhile, past studies (Gillies et al 2015, Gillies et al 2011 [10,11] have developed time series modeling to anticipate the GSL water level out to 5-10 years. Predictability of streamflow and water storage at decadal timescale was reported elsewhere, such as the Missouri River basin (Neri et al 2018;Wang et al 2014) [12,13]. Therefore, a compelling case can be made that the same multi-year forecast developed for the GSL water level could apply to the Colorado River WS.…”

“…Ten-Year Moving-Average ARMAX (13,10,7,0) One of the ARMAX models chosen had an ARMA (13, 10) base, and it includes 7 GSL elevation lags. The model equation is…”

Climate Variability and Floods—A Global Review

“…Wang et al [58] The PDO was an important precursor toward anticipating major flood events in the Missouri River Basin in 2011.…”