The North Atlantic Oscillation and greenhouse‐gas forcing

Kuzmina, Svetlana I.; Bengtsson, Lennart; Johannessen, Ola M.; Drange, Helge; Bobylev, Leonid; Miles, Martin W.

doi:10.1029/2004gl021064

Cited by 86 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…A growing weight of evidence suggests, however, that despite the return of the NAM to a more neutral state, which one might expect to retard Arctic warming, external forcing may favor an increased frequency of the warm positive phase. Many studies (e.g., Baldwin and Dunkerton, 1999;Schindell et al, 1999;Fyfe et al, 1999;Gillett et al, 2003;Yumikoto and Kunihiko, 2005;Kuzmina et al, 2005) argue that cooling of the stratosphere in response to increasing carbon dioxide and methane concentrations, or even through ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons, may "spin up" the polar stratospheric vortex, resulting in lower Arctic surface pressures and a positive shift in the NAM. These ideas are being tested in a wide variety of models, but no consensus has yet been reached.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Arctic Amplification Debate

2006

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Abstract. Rises in surface air temperature (SAT) in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to be amplified in northern high latitudes, with warming most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean owing to the loss of sea ice. Observations document recent warming, but an enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not readily evident. This disparity, combined with varying model projections of SAT change, and large variability in observed SAT over the 20th century, may lead one to question the concept of Arctic amplification. Disparity is greatly reduced, however, if one compares observed trajectories to near-future simulations (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025)(2026)(2027)(2028)(2029), rather than to the doubled-CO 2 or late 21st century conditions that are typically cited. These near-future simulations document a preconditioning phase of Arctic amplification, characterized by the initial retreat and thinning of sea ice, with imprints of low-frequency variability. Observations show these same basic features, but with SATs over the Arctic Ocean still largely constrained by the insulating effects of the ice cover and thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Given the general consistency with model projections, we are likely near the threshold when absorption of solar radiation during summer limits ice growth the following autumn and winter, initiating a feedback leading to a substantial increase in Arctic Ocean SATs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Arctic Amplification Debate

2006

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“…Despite the return of the AO to more neutral conditions over the decade, some modeling studies suggest that external forcing, including increased greenhouse gas concentrations and stratospheric ozone loss, may favor a higher frequency of its positive state (e.g. Kuzmina et al, 2005). However, the AO/NAO record is also consistent with a red noise time series model of atmospheric variability (Wunch, 1999).…”

Section: Broad-scale Atmospheric Circulation For Thementioning

confidence: 97%

“…Associated with this pattern of warming over the Arctic are corresponding decreases of sea-level pressure and increased precipitation, implying that the validity of the model projections of Arctic change are as credible as their handling of the process of sea ice retreat. Other model intercomparison studies suggest that the NAO/AO positive phase may intensify in the future due to increasing CO 2 concentrations (Rauthe et al, 2004;Kuzmina et al, 2005). An apparent paradox is that, while the long-range projections favor changes in fall and winter over the oceans, recent Arctic change is strong in spring and larger over land.…”

Section: Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Arctic and antarctic perspective on recent climate change

Turner

Overland

Walsh

2006

Intl Journal of Climatology

134

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Abstract:We contrast recent climatic and environmental changes and their causes in the Arctic and the Antarctic. There are continuing increases in surface temperatures, losses of sea ice and tundra, and warming of permafrost over broad areas of the Arctic, while most of the major increase in Antarctic temperatures is on the Antarctic Peninsula associated with sea ice loss in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. While both natural atmospheric and oceanic variability, and changes in external forcing including increased greenhouse gas concentrations, must be considered in the quest for understanding such changes, the interactions and feedbacks between system components are particularly strong at high latitudes. For the 1950s to date in the Arctic and for 1957 to date in the Antarctic, positive trends in large-scale atmospheric circulation represented by the Arctic oscillation (AO) and Antarctic oscillations (AAO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern contribute to the long-term temperature trends. However, continuing Arctic trends during the last decade of near neutral AO will require alternate explanations. The trend in the AAO since 1950 is larger than expected from natural variability and may be associated with the decrease in stratospheric ozone over Antarctic. The persistence shown in many Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula components of climate and their influence through possible feedback supports continuation of current trends over the next decade. One can expect large spatial and temporal differences, however, from the relative contributions of intrinsic variability, external forcing, and internal feedback/amplifications. It is particularly important to resolve regional feedback processes in future projections based on modeling scenarios.

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“…Indeed, many of the observed trends in recent decades might be associated with these oscillations (Santos et al, 2012;Barton et al, 2013). Though predictions are controversial, some of these climate oscillations are expected to increase in amplitude or variance with climate change (Timmermann et al, 1999;Kuzmina et al, 2005;Sydeman et al, 2013;Cai et al, 2015), which would further mask monotonic trends.…”

Section: Water Temperatures and The Counteracting Roles Of Upwelling mentioning

confidence: 99%

Under Pressure: Climate Change, Upwelling, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems

et al. 2015

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The IPCC AR5 provided an overview of the likely effects of climate change on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS), stimulating increased interest in research examining the issue. We use these recent studies to develop a new synthesis describing climate change impacts on EBUS. We find that model and observational data suggest coastal upwelling-favorable winds in poleward portions of EBUS have intensified and will continue to do so in the future. Although evidence is weak in data that are presently available, future projections show that this pattern might be driven by changes in the positioning of the oceanic high-pressure systems rather than by deepening of the continental low-pressure systems, as previously proposed. There is low confidence regarding the future effects of climate change on coastal temperatures and biogeochemistry due to uncertainty in the countervailing responses to increasing upwelling and coastal warming, the latter of which could increase thermal stratification and render upwelling less effective in lifting nutrient-rich deep waters into the photic zone. Although predictions of ecosystem responses are uncertain, EBUS experience considerable natural variability and may be inherently resilient. However, multi-trophic level, end-to-end (i.e., "winds to whales") studies are needed to resolve the resilience of EBUS to climate change, especially their response to long-term trends or extremes that exceed pre-industrial ranges.

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The North Atlantic Oscillation and greenhouse‐gas forcing

Cited by 86 publications

References 22 publications

The Arctic Amplification Debate

The Arctic Amplification Debate

An Arctic and antarctic perspective on recent climate change

Under Pressure: Climate Change, Upwelling, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems

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