The New Uncertainty Principle

Appell, David

doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0101-18

Cited by 73 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…This approach may superficially appear to be consistent with an undisputed tenet of science, namely, transparently disclosing all sources of uncertainty. That, in turn, would appear to be an outgrowth of the movement to apply the ''precautionary principle'' to wildlife conservation, an appealing if controversial approach that has been applied largely to pollution, pesticides, and genetic engineering (Foster et al 2000, Appell 2001). Although we sympathize with the objectives of those promoting such an approach, we find it lacking as a basis for good conservation decisions.…”

Section: Concluding Thoughtsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal, Spatial, and Environmental Influences on the Demographics of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Schwartz

Haroldson

White

et al. 2006

Wildlife Monographs

199

230

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During the past 2 decades, the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has increased in numbers and expanded in range. Understanding temporal, environmental, and spatial variables responsible for this change is useful in evaluating what likely influenced grizzly bear demographics in the GYE and where future management efforts might benefit conservation and management. We used recent data from radio-marked bears to estimate reproduction (1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002) and survival (1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001); these we combined into models to evaluate demographic vigor (lambda [k]). We explored the influence of an array of individual, temporal, and spatial covariates on demographic vigor.We identified an important relationship between k and where a bear resides within the GYE. This potential for a source-sink dynamic in the GYE, coupled with concerns for managing sustainable mortality, reshaped our thinking about how management agencies might approach longterm conservation of the species. Consequently, we assessed the current spatial dynamic of the GYE grizzly bear population. Throughout, we followed the information-theoretic approach. We developed suites of a priori models that included individual, temporal, and spatial covariates that potentially affected reproduction and survival. We selected our best approximating models using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) adjusted for small sample sizes and overdispersion (AIC c or QAIC c , respectively).We provide recent estimates for reproductive parameters of grizzly bears based on 108 adult ( .3 years old ) females observed for 329 bearyears. We documented production of 104 litters with cub counts for 102 litters. Mean age of females producing their first litter was 5.81 years and ranged from 4 to 7 years. Proportion of nulliparous females that produced cubs at age 4-7 years was 9.8, 29.4, 56.4, and 100%, respectively. Mean (6SE) litter size (n ¼ 102) was 2.0 6 0.1. The proportion of litters of 1, 2, and 3 cubs was 0.18, 0.61, and 0.22, respectively. Mean yearling litter size (n ¼ 57 ) was 2.0 6 0.1. The proportion of litters containing 1, 2, 3, and 4 yearlings was 0.26, 0.51, 0.21, and 0.02, respectively. The proportion of radio-marked females accompanied by cubs varied among years from 0.05 to 0.60; the mean was 0.316 6 0.03. Reproductive rate was estimated as 0.318 female cubs/female/year. We evaluated the probability of producing a litter of 0-3 cubs relative to a suite of individual and temporal covariates using multinomial logistic regression. Our best models indicated that reproductive output, measured as cubs per litter, was most strongly influenced by indices of population size and whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) cone production. Our data suggest a possible density-dependent response in reproductive output, although perinatal mortality could...

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Section: Concluding Thoughtsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal, Spatial, and Environmental Influences on the Demographics of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Schwartz

Haroldson

White

et al. 2006

Wildlife Monographs

199

230

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“…In Europe, GMOs are present in many products sold in the supermarkets, and officially imported from abroad. At the moment, GM-planted fields are allowed only for experimental trials since European Union opted for the application "Precaution Principle" (Comm., 0001), which states that whenever (Appell, 2001):…”

Section: The Debate On Gmosmentioning

confidence: 99%

REQUIREMENTS ENGINEERING FOR THE BUSINESS PROCESS RE-ENGINEERING: an Example in the Agro-Food Supply Chain

Bresciani¹,

Marin²,

Martinelli³

et al. 2004

Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Pattern Recognition in Information Systems

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Being able to reduce the gap between Requirements Engineering and Software Engineering is crucial to foster the developments of better Informations Systems that more precisely adresses the organizational needs of the stakeholders. One of the key factor toward this objective is adopting methodologies in which the the conceptual level of Requirements Engineering techniques is raised, so that formal representations can be used since the very early stages of requirements elicitation and analysis. The Tropos methodology targets this objective by means of the so called Early Requirements Analysis, that is aimed at understanding and analyzing the organizational goals by means of a precise and very expressive diagrammatic notation. The paper exemplifies the use of Tropos Early Requirements while applied to a simplified case of business analysis in the context of the terminal part of the agro-food products delivery chain. The case is extracted from a more comprehensive analysis performed in the context of an ongoing project in the field of the dissemination of knowledge concerning the topic of the "Genetically Modified Organisms" (GMO).

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“…But it is fair to ask, as Appell does, "Is the precautionary principle consistent with science, which after all can never prove a negative?" 5 Tukker observed that "parties on both sides simply caricature each other's position: precaution would lead to a standstill of all innovation . .…”

Section: Editorialmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…and make a commitment "to devote their energies and talents to the most pressing problems of the day, in proportion to their importance, in exchange for public funding". 5 Nevertheless, the buck has to stop somewhere and as Yach concludes, "Putting prevention first requires political courage . .…”

Section: Editorialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expanding the precautionary principle

Pless

2003

Inj Prev

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The New Uncertainty Principle

Cited by 73 publications

References 0 publications

Temporal, Spatial, and Environmental Influences on the Demographics of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Temporal, Spatial, and Environmental Influences on the Demographics of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

REQUIREMENTS ENGINEERING FOR THE BUSINESS PROCESS RE-ENGINEERING: an Example in the Agro-Food Supply Chain

Expanding the precautionary principle

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