The net effect of the travel restriction policy on tourism demand: evidence from Greece

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide up-to-date evidence on the net effect of COVID-19 pandemic on international arrivals and occupancy rates in Greece. Analysis and forecasting point out the demand for 2020, and thus yielding more concrete evidence on the pure effect of the pandemic on the tourism industry.Design/methodology/approachMonthly observations from January 2000 to December 2020 were extracted from the Tourist Enterprises Association (SETE) for Athens, Thessaloniki, Kalamata, Rhodes, Mytilene, Santorini, Zante, Kefalonia and Crete. To model and forecast the volatility and the time trend effect of tourist arrivals individually, the study applies the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (p,d,q) and the error, trend, seasonality (ETS) model.FindingsEmpirical results suggested that Athens, Thessaloniki and Crete were three destinations with the worst losses in international tourist arrivals. Specifically, Athens was expecting to have (without the existence of COVID-19) more than 330,000 tourist arrivals in December 2020 while instead only 73,000 international tourists visited Athens that period. Similarly, Thessaloniki and the island of Crete lost more than 150,000 international visitors during December 2020.Originality/valueThe author’s study adds to a growing number of studies regarding the impact of COVID-19 by incorporating monthly international arrival data and occupancy rate data for the whole 2020 reflecting differences in transportation or vacation choices. Also, the authors operationalized multiple time-series forecasting models (ETS and ARIMA) for reaching more concrete forecasts and estimates on the effect of COVID-19 on the Greek tourism sector.

Being creative under the Covid-19 pandemic crisis: the role of effective inter-organizational relationship management

“…However, although the Greek government took measures to control the pandemic and avoid the possibility of a health crisis, the national economy, including the tourism industry, was severely hit (Pappas, 2021). In fact, in 2020, there was about a 70% decrease in international tourist arrivals in the major cities of Athens and Thessaloniki (Dimitropoulos et al, 2021), while many hotels embarked on adjusting their market offerings to incorporate more safety features to protect their guests from the pandemic (Pavlatos et al, 2021).…”

A Pandemia De Covid-19 E Gestão De Riscos Em Turismo: Um Estudo De Empreendimentos Turísticos Em Uma Localidade Turística

“…Dessa forma, a Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV, 2020) afirma que o status econômico do setor turístico foi de uma quase paralisação e para recuperar o setor teve a estimativa de que seria necessário que o turismo crescesse 16,95% ao ano em 2022 e 2023. Essa repercussão sobre o setor turístico deu-se devido ao bloqueio nas viagens durante alguns meses em 2020, impedindo o movimento de pessoas para reduzir o contágio da COVID-19 (DIMITROPOULOS et. al.…”