The Myth of the Vanishing Voter

Abstract

The apparent decline in voter participation in national elections since 1972 is an illusion created by using the Bureau of the Census estimate of the voting-age population as the denominator of the turnout rate. We construct a more accurate estimate of those eligible to vote, from 1948–2000, using government statistical series to adjust for ineligible but included groups, such as noncitizens and felons, and eligible but excluded groups, such as overseas citizens. We show that the ineligible population, not the nonvoting, has been increasing since 1972. During the 1960s the turnout rate trended downward both nationally and outside the South. Although the average turnout rates for presidential and congressional elections are lower since 1972 than during 1948–70, the only pattern since 1972 is an increased turnout rate in southern congressional elections. While the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1971, the lower turnout rate of young voters accounts for less than one-fourth of reduced voter participation.

Changes in Congressional Turnout, 1972–2006

“…7. McDonald and Popkin (2001) found that when this difference is taken into account, the trend in turnout is higher than it may appear. The scope of this study does not permit me to seek out each district's voting eligible population.…”

Families, divorce and voter turnout in the US

“…Figure 1 plots the percentage of children in single parent households because of divorce against youth turnout rates based on the eligible electorate (as computed by McDonald and Popkin, 2001). The figure shows that divorce rates rose steadily until 1992 and that (with large idiosyncratic shocks) turnout shows a general downward trend through 1996 (we expect a lag because the children represented by the lower line in the figure are not yet eligible to vote).…”

Voter response to congressional campaigns: new techniques for analyzing aggregate electoral behavior

“…Variation is potentially large across states, because each state is guaranteed at least one congressional district regardless of state population, and states have different rules for determining eligibility to vote (e.g., voting rights of convicted felons). We recognize a distinction between voting-eligible population (VEP) and voting-age population (VAP); see McDonald and Popkin (2001). District-level figures for VEP are not available, but can be estimated dividing the state-level VEP figures by the number of congressional districts in the state.…”