Voter response to congressional campaigns: new techniques for analyzing aggregate electoral behavior

Basinger, Scott J.; Cann, Damon M.; Ensley, Michael J.

doi:10.1007/s11127-010-9730-6

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(37 reference statements)

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“…Those in the first category paint a mixed picture. Some indicate that high unemployment rates depress aggregate turnout (Basinger, Cann, and Ensley 2012; Rosenstone 1982); others find no systematic effect (Arcelus and Meltzer 1975); and others still discern a positive effect of the unemployment rate on turnout (Burden and Wichowsky 2014). At first glance, results at the individual level seem more uniform: the unemployed are generally less likely to turn out than the employed.…”

Section: Related Studies and Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond Opportunity Costs: Campaign Messages, Anger and Turnout among the Unemployed

Aytaç

Rau

Stokes

2018

Brit. J. Polit. Sci.

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Are people under economic stress more or less likely to vote, and why? With large observational datasets and a survey experiment involving unemployed Americans, we show that unemployment depresses participation. But it does so more powerfully when the unemployment rate is low, less powerfully when it is high. Whereas earlier studies have explained lower turnout among the unemployed by stressing the especially high opportunity costs these would-be voters face, our evidence points to the psychological effects of unemployment and of campaign messages about it. When unemployment is high, challengers have an incentive to blame the incumbent, thus eliciting anger among the unemployed. Psychologists have shown anger to be an approach or mobilizing emotion. When joblessness is low, campaigns tend to ignore it. The jobless thus remain in states of depression and self-blame, which are demobilizing emotions.

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Section: Related Studies and Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond Opportunity Costs: Campaign Messages, Anger and Turnout among the Unemployed

Aytaç

Rau

Stokes

2018

Brit. J. Polit. Sci.

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“…We refer the reader to the original in Katz and King (), and to Mikhailov, Niemi, and Weimer (), and for extensions in multiparty votes see Kamakura and Mazzon () and Basinger, Cann, and Ensley ().…”

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confidence: 99%

Proximity and Voting for Professional Sporting Stadiums: The Pattern of Support for the Seahawk Stadium Referendum

Horn

Cantor

Fort

2015

Contemporary Economic Policy

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This paper evaluates voting behavior on the Seahawk Stadium referendum in the State of Washington. For our empirical strategy, we implement both the linear probability model and a group logit model, which gives greater weight to voting areas with greater number of votes cast. We find that voting support was lowest among those living closest to the proposed stadium site, while voting support was highest among those within "easy access" of the stadium. This nonlinear distance effect differs from the typical "proximity" effect found in most professional sporting stadiums in the United States; however, it is consistent with a referendum-voting outcome for a professional soccer stadium in Germany and public projects such as national forests. (JEL R53, H71, L83)

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“…As discussed above, we argue that modeling the composition of relative income shares offers a more complete picture of income inequality. In order to implement this strategy, we use a methodological approach first pioneered in geology (Aitchison, 1982(Aitchison, , 1983, and later applied to political science (Katz and King, 1999;Tomz, Tucker, and Wittenberg, 2002;Basinger, Cann, and Ensley, 2012;Philips, Rutherford, andWhitten, 2015, 2016a).…”

Section: A Compositional Approach To Modeling Inequalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, since there are now only J − 1 logged ratio series, s t j , we can include each of them as dependent variables in a system of equations, which gets around the redundant degree of freedom problem. A system of equations approach also provides the ability to take into account the correlated error structure across time, as explicitly modeled using methods such as SUR or VAR models (Brandt, Monroe, and Williams, 1999;Jackson, 2002;Mikhailov, Niemi, and Weimer, 2002;Basinger, Cann, and Ensley, 2012;Philips, Rutherford, and Whitten, 2016a). 7…”

Section: A Compositional Approach To Modeling Inequalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

What About the Rest of the Pie? A Dynamic Compositional Approach to Modeling Inequality

Kagalwala¹,

Philips

Whitten³

2021

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective. To demonstrate how a novel method enhances our understanding of determinants of inequality. Methods. We take advantage of recent advances in dynamic models of compositional dependent variables to simultaneously study tradeoffs across multiple slices of the composition of income in the United States between 1947 and 2014. Results. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of dynamic compositional models of income shares. Factors that increase the income share of the top income group often also increase the income share of the second income group and decrease the shares of lower groups at different rates. Polarization and marginal tax rates have large effects on relative income shares, while returns to labor, returns to capital, and partisan control of Congress have smaller, but statistically significant effects. Conclusion. Our suggested approach allows researchers to effectively explore interesting variation across multiple income groups in response to changes in determinants of inequality.

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Voter response to congressional campaigns: new techniques for analyzing aggregate electoral behavior

Abstract: Elections, Research methods, Mobilization, Campaign expenditures,

Cited by 11 publications

References 42 publications

Beyond Opportunity Costs: Campaign Messages, Anger and Turnout among the Unemployed

Beyond Opportunity Costs: Campaign Messages, Anger and Turnout among the Unemployed

Proximity and Voting for Professional Sporting Stadiums: The Pattern of Support for the Seahawk Stadium Referendum

What About the Rest of the Pie? A Dynamic Compositional Approach to Modeling Inequality

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