The multifinality of vulnerability indicators in lone-actor terrorism

Corner, Emily; Marchment, Zoe; Gill, Paul

doi:10.1080/1068316x.2018.1503664

Cited by 40 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 70 publications

(53 reference statements)

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“…Other studies support in various ways the model of the TRAP‐18, highlight its potential weakness, such as an absence of protective factors, and also suggest directions for future research. Corner et al () demonstrated the usefulness and importance of time sequence analysis in a large sample of lone actor terrorists, as we have noted. Schuurman, Bakker, Gill, and Bouhana () found that lone actor terrorists are generally poor at operational security, leak their intent in various ways over the course of weeks and months – as do most targeted violence attackers (Silver, Simons, & Craun, ) – and have broader social contacts than was originally surmised.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 73%

Visualizing the relationship among indicators for lone actor terrorist attacks: Multidimensional scaling and the TRAP‐18

Goodwill

Meloy

2019

Behavioral Sci & The Law

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This validation study analyses data from a sample of North American terrorist attackers (n = 33) and non‐attackers (n = 23) through the lens of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP‐18; Meloy, 2017) utilizing a multivariate statistical approach – multidimensional scaling – to visualize potential clustering (co‐occurrence) of risk factors. Rarely done in terrorism research, the results plotted in two‐dimensional space show the clustering and co‐occurrence of most of the eight proximal warning behaviors among the attackers, but not among the non‐attackers, and less of a clustering and association of distal characteristics, but their presence in both attackers and non‐attackers. These findings provide further empirical support for the rational‐theoretical model of the TRAP‐18, a structured professional judgment instrument for threat assessment of lone actor terrorists. It advances the quantitative analysis of operationally relevant and behaviorally observable indicators for use by law enforcement and counterterrorism professionals and their consultants. Findings are discussed in relation to other research on pre‐offense behaviors of lone actor terrorists, and recommendations are made for both operational use and further research.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 73%

Visualizing the relationship among indicators for lone actor terrorist attacks: Multidimensional scaling and the TRAP‐18

Goodwill

Meloy

2019

Behavioral Sci & The Law

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“…Lone‐actor terrorists were also significantly more likely to display low self‐control and thrill‐seeking behaviors, as found by Nussio , as well as proxy indicators of a crime‐ and/or violence‐supportive morality, such as having a history of substance abuse, having a criminal conviction and/or experiencing imprisonment, violence unrelated to terrorism, and escalating levels of anger. These results mirror previous conceptualizations of violent extremism as resulting from a dynamic interaction among specific individual‐level vulnerabilities (i.e., cognitive and/or moral susceptibilities), various situational factors, and differential exposures to terrorism‐supportive settings and/or moral norms, . Unsurprisingly, lone‐actor terrorists were significantly more likely to express a desire to hurt others, and to have had access to a stockpile of weaponry.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…Further follow‐up studies conceptualized such risk factors and indicators as relating to propensity, situation, and exposure (for a full discussion see Refs. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism

Clemmow

Schumann

Salman

et al. 2020

Journal of Forensic Sciences

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Improvements have been made in identifying the prevalence of risk factors/indicators for violent extremism. A consistent problem is the lack of base rates. How to develop base rates is of equal concern. This study has two aims: (i) compare two methods for developing base rates; the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT) and direct questioning, (ii) generate base rates in a general population sample and compare these to a sample of lone-actor terrorists (n = 125). We surveyed 2108 subjects from the general population. Participants were recruited from an online access panel and randomly assigned to one of three conditions; direct survey, control, or UCT. Survey items were based on a loneactor terrorist codebook developed from the wider literature. Direct questioning was more suitable under our study conditions where UCT resulted in deflation effects. Comparing the base rates identified a number of significant differences: (i) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated propensity indicators related to a cognitive susceptibility, and a crime-and/or violence-supportive morality more often; the general sample demonstrated protective factors more often, (ii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated situational indicators related to a crime-and/or violence-supportive morality more often, whereas the general sample experienced situational stressors more often, (iii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated indicators related to exposure to extremism more often. Results suggest there are measurable differences in the prevalence of risk factors between lone-actor terrorists and the general population. However, no single factor "predicts" violent extremism. This bears implications for our understanding of the interrelation of risk and protective factors, and for the risk assessment of violent extremism.

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“…To do so, the purposely built RAF, developed for the PRIME project, is adopted as theoretical guidance. The RAF has been applied to the modeling of various aspects of lone‐actor terrorist events (Bouhana, Corner, Gill, & Schuurman, ; Corner, Bouhana, & Gill, ; Schuurman, Bakker, Gill, & Bouhana, ), although it should be noted that nothing precludes the RAF from being applied to other types of offences. A detailed presentation of the RAF is beyond the scope of this article.…”

Section: Analytical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing person‐exposure patterns in lone‐actor terrorism

Clemmow

Marchment

Gill

2019

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research Summary:The lone-actor terrorist population can be extremely heterogeneous and difficult to detect. Intelligence is vital to countering this threat. We devise a typology of person-exposure patterns (PEPs) that could serve as a framework for intelligence gathering and threat assessment. We use cluster analysis and a risk analysis framework (RAF) to identify relations among three components: propensity, situation, and network.The results of the analysis reveal four PEPs: solitary, susceptible, situational, and selection. The solitary PEP lacks common indicators of a propensity to pursue terrorist action. The susceptible PEP reveals cognitive susceptibility, manifesting as mental illness, to be a key factor in the emergence of a terrorist propensity. The situational PEP demonstrates how situational stressors may act as warnings of acceleration toward violent action. Lastly, the selection PEP demonstrates higher frequencies of leakage and antecedent violent behaviors.Policy Implications: Our findings have two key policy implications. First, given the multifinality of terrorism risk indicators, we suggest a move toward a structuredprofessional judgement approach to the risk analysis of lone-actor terrorists. Second, we present the PEP typology as a framework for intelligence gathering. Existing frameworks are predominantly focused on mobilization 452 CLEMMOW ET AL.indicators. We suggest expanding data collection to include propensity and situational indicators, as operationalized here, and using the PEP typology to inform decisions about the emergence of the motivation to commit an attack. To do so, it is necessary to pursue a multiagency approach to intelligence gathering.

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The multifinality of vulnerability indicators in lone-actor terrorism

Cited by 40 publications

References 70 publications

Visualizing the relationship among indicators for lone actor terrorist attacks: Multidimensional scaling and the TRAP‐18

Visualizing the relationship among indicators for lone actor terrorist attacks: Multidimensional scaling and the TRAP‐18

The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism

Analyzing person‐exposure patterns in lone‐actor terrorism

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