The moving epidemic method applied to influenza surveillance in Guangdong, China

Kang, Min; Tan, Xiaohua; Ye, Meiyun; Liao, Yu; Song, Tie; Tang, Shixing

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.058

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…We examined monthly IV positive rates over 3 years and demonstrated that the seasonality of influenza during the COVID‐19 pandemic was somewhat different from the prepandemic period. Before the pandemic, the flu season was in the winter, which was consistent with that of most northern hemisphere countries 11 . After the WHO declared COVID‐19 as a pandemic, the seasonal variation of influenza started to become less pronounced.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

“…Before the pandemic, the flu season was in the winter, which was consistent with that of most northern hemisphere countries. 11 After the WHO declared COVID‐19 as a pandemic, the seasonal variation of influenza started to become less pronounced. During this period, the highest positivity for IAV occurs in June 2021, but this is only equivalent to June 2019.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on influenza virus prevalence in children in Sichuan, China

Wang

Zhe

et al. 2022

Journal of Medical Virology

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We performed a retrospective analysis of influenza A and B virus antigen detection data in children in Sichuan Province from January 2019 to December 2021, with the goal of studying the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on influenza circulation in children in Sichuan, China. During the pandemic, both the number of specimens and the positive rates of the influenza virus fell dramatically. The positivity for influenza A virus decreased from 22.5% in 2019 to 9.9% in 2020 to 0.2% in 2021 (p < 0.001). The lowest and highest positive rates for the influenza B virus occurred in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with a statistically significant 3‐year comparison (p < 0.001). During the pandemic, the annual positivity remained higher in school‐age than in preschoolers, while there was no difference in the annual positivity between the two gender groups, both consistent with the prepandemic results. During the pandemic, the seasonality of influenza A and B was different from that before the pandemic. In 2019, the epidemic season for influenza A was autumn and winter, while the epidemic season for influenza B was winter and spring. Seasonal changes in influenza A were insignificant after the pandemic, and influenza B became predominant in 2021, with a high prevalence in the autumn. Although influenza activity decreased during the COVID‐19 pandemic, one should be on the lookout for a possible rebound in influenza circulation in the future.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on influenza virus prevalence in children in Sichuan, China

Wang

Zhe

et al. 2022

Journal of Medical Virology

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“…For the general population, the influenza epidemic threshold in season 2018/2019 was defined as 12.10%, lower than the thresholds established for all subtropical cities in China [29]. A difference was also found between the epidemic thresholds for Guangdong Province and its climate zone [17]. These results may be attributed to the large territory in China, which leads to climate and economic differences among provinces, finally resulting in various influenza epidemic patterns of regions even in the same climate zones.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…We excluded this season from calculating the total influenza thresholds, because the transformation tool could not separate this season. For the type-specific strain, we followed the examples of the study in Guangdong Province and Scotland [17,23], and the epidemic threshold was calculated using weekly data in the seasons when the proportion of the strain exceeded 20%. We defined the last season as the test set for each influenza strain, while the other was the training data.…”

Section: Moving Epidemic Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The moving epidemic method (MEM) was first put forward in Spain [11] and has been adopted as a routine surveillance program to establish the epidemic threshold and intensity levels in some temperate countries [12,13]. Increasing studies in other climate zones have also demonstrated the high goodness of fit of the threshold established by the MEM [14][15][16][17]. In China, there is no standard method for setting epidemic thresholds, so introducing a practical method for early influenza detection will be helpful to reduce the disease burden for Chinese people.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China

Jiang

Tong

Fang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Background: School-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups. Methods: We divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process. Results: The epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2. Conclusions: This study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China.

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Association of climatic variables with risk of transmission of influenza in Guangzhou, China, 2005–2021

Zhang

Lai

Wen-hui

et al. 2023

International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health

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The moving epidemic method applied to influenza surveillance in Guangdong, China

Cited by 6 publications

References 22 publications

Impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on influenza virus prevalence in children in Sichuan, China

Impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on influenza virus prevalence in children in Sichuan, China

Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China

Association of climatic variables with risk of transmission of influenza in Guangzhou, China, 2005–2021

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