The Mobilizing Effect of Party System Polarization. Evidence From Europe

Abstract

Does party system polarization mobilize voters? Polarization is increasingly shaping democratic competition across Europe. While often perceived to be negative, polarization can be an effective remedy against voter disengagement. This paper investigates two distinct, but often conflated mechanisms, which could explain why polarization leads to mobilization. Spatial polarization of parties diversifies electoral options at the ballot, while affective polarization mobilizes based on emotional considerations. This article then shows the link between polarization and turnout across 22 European countries. The results are complemented by a difference-in-differences analysis of German local elections. However, voting results alone do not inform about the mechanism at play. Survey data is used to show that negative affect appears to be the main driver of voter participation. Party polarization thus has ambivalent consequences for democracies: It mobilizes the electorate, but its effect is driven by negative emotions.

Affective polarization in Europe

“…Similarly, affective polarization can also motivate political engagement, and indeed there are close links between affective polarization and key emotions such as anger (Webster, 2020). Thus, Harteveld and Wagner (2023) find that affective polarization increases turnout, with Ellger (2023) showing that it is mainly negative affect that fosters mobilization (see also Serani, 2022;Ahn and Mutz, 2023).…”

Party-System Polarization and Individual Perceptions of Party Differences: Two Divergent Effects on Turnout

“…In the contemporary multiparty landscape of Europe, for example, polarization is driven by the advent and lasting electoral success of right-wing radical or populist parties (e.g. Bischof and Wagner 2019;Ellger 2023;Leininger and Meijers 2021;Tavits 2006).…”

“…Polarization, understood as the distinctiveness of parties concerning their ideological position, increases voter turnout (Dassonneville and Çakır 2021;Ellger 2023;Hobolt and Hoerner 2020;Key 1966;Leighley and Nagler 2014;Lupu 2015;Moral 2017;Schäfer and Debus 2018). Accordingly, heavily polarized party systems and heavily centrist party systems may similarly depress voter turnout because both ideal types ignore the ideological positions of portions of the electorate (Downs 1957a: 117ff.…”

“…In the literature on turnout, party polarization aids those voters who see no differences between the parties; otherwise, they would not know which party to vote forand thus abstain (Downs 1957a;Franklin 2004). The higher the level of polarization, the easier it is for even those not so politically sophisticated citizens to recognize parties' diverse ideological standpoints and issue agendas (Ellger 2023;Lachat 2008;Levendusky 2010;Lupu 2015). As a result, they find some parties to be close to their views and others to be far away.…”

Does polarization increase participation? A systematic literature review and meta-analysis

“…Most analyses use a single polarization measure in each model, recognizing the frequent cooccurrence of different aspects of polarization and their yet uncertain causal relationships. For example, Ellger (2023) in his study of the effects of ideological polarization on turnout explains: "For conceptual clarity, I treat spatial and affective polarization as distinct mechanisms that link party system polarization to higher turnout. However, both concepts are intertwined and potentially reinforcing."…”