Does polarization increase participation? A systematic literature review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Political polarization is thought to have broadly negative effects on societies. The possibility that polarization mobilizes and motivates people to participate more in politics is one potentially positive consequence of polarization’s recent increase in many European countries. This paper presents results of a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of 25 articles published since 1990 that study the effects of polarization on participation empirically. A review of these articles enables a categorization of the research depending on the type of polarization (affective or ideological), its level (individual or system), and type of participation (electoral or non-electoral), and an analysis of theoretical arguments proposed by authors of studies in each category, as well as the data and methods used. A meta-analysis of 103 coefficients capturing the focal association, converted into standardized effect sizes, suggests a positive effect of polarization on participation even after accounting for the substantial publication bias; however, this effect is likely very small. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges researchers of polarization and participation face, and opportunities for further research on this topic.