The Missing Link? US Policy and the International Dimensions of Failed Democratic Transitions in the Arab World

Abstract

In contrast to the hopes of some US observers, the so‐called ‘Baghdad Spring’ of early 2005 did not mark the beginning of an era of sustained political reform in the Middle East. In an attempt to explain the resilience of authoritarian governance in the region, this article aims to demonstrate the insufficiencies of external democratisation efforts that rely on a crude reading of the ‘modernisation’ school of thinking and ignore the insights of the ‘transition’ school with regard to the international dimensions of democratisation. Case studies of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, two countries sharing close strategic relationships with the United States yet differing in the socio‐economic foundations of authoritarianism and experiences with managing external and domestic calls for political reform, demonstrate that the unwillingness of the United States to condition its support for regional partners on human rights concerns constitutes one of the main reasons for the Arab world's ‘democratic exception’.

Guns, Butter, and Human Rights—The Congressional Politics of U.S. Aid to Egypt

“…Contrary to recent revisionist accounts that focus more on rhetoric than substance (Abrams, 2011), President Bush had followed his Republican and Democratic predecessors in the steadfast support for the Egyptian regime and the aid allocation on which it depended (Berger, 2011). In fact, even in the context of the harsh crackdown on the peaceful Egyptian political reform movement that was gathering strength in the second half of the previous decade, the Bush administration strongly opposed any Congressional initiative to alter the fundamentals of the U.S. aid relationship with Egypt.…”

“…It also followed outgoing U.S. Ambassador David Welch's announcement that USAID would, for the first time, offer grants to Egyptian nongovernmental organizations with explicitly political goals (Berger, 2011). It was in this context of cautious optimism that David Obey (D-Wis.), then-ranking member on the Appropriations Committee, was able to insert language into the appropriations bill mandating, for the first time that US$100 million of annual economic assistance could only be used for democracy and education programs.…”

Repression as a Double‐edged Sword: Resilient Monarchs, Repression and Revolution in the Arab World

“…Concerning the external dimension, massive repression could alienate external partners. However, current research shows that this form of conditionality of support is little used in the MENA region (Berger 2011). repression (King 2009: 65). If would-be rebels are unsure whether they are facing an autocrat whose legitimacy is strong or weak, the widespread use of repression sends a signal that they are facing an autocrat who is widely perceived as illegitimate.…”

“…Concerning the external dimension, massive repression could alienate external partners. However, current research shows that this form of conditionality of support is little used in the MENA region (Berger ).…”

Rethinking eu Energy Security Considering Past Trends and Future Prospects

“…That is "a mutually reinforcing combination of a deep economic crisis and cultural frictions, which become entrenched in the public domain, lead ing to militant confrontations between cultural groups within the [state and] society [as well as between states and societies]." This crisis is the consequence of failed attempting at nation-state-building, sustainable development and democratization (see Amineh 2007, Ch 1;; see also Berger 2011). The population of patrimonial rentier states of the Persian Gulf is supported by finances earned through resource exports in exchange for keeping quiet in state affairs.…”