The Missing Baby Bust: The Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Contraceptive Use, Pregnancy, and Childbirth Among Low-Income Women

Abstract

Multiple episodes in US history demonstrate that birth rates fall in response to recessions. However, the 2020 COVID-19 recession differed from earlier periods in that employment and access to contraception and abortion fell, as reproductive health centers across the country temporarily closed or reduced their capacity. This paper exploits novel survey and administrative data to examine how reductions in access to reproductive health care during 2020 affected contraceptive efficacy among low-income women. Accounting for 2020’s reductions in access to contraception and the economic slowdown, our results predict a modest decline in births of 1.1 percent in 2021 for low-income women. Further accounting for reductions in access to abortion implies that birth rates may even rise for low-income women. These results also suggest that already economically disadvantaged families disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 economy will experience a large increase in unplanned births. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-022-09703-9.

The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic

“…Affluent families also saw increases in the value of their assets as both stock markets and home prices soared (Cian and Rebillard, 2021). At the same time, access to reproductive health care and abortion was disrupted and, in some cases, completely shut down (Kavanaugh, 2022), which may have reduced fertility at older ages while also tending to increase unintended childbirth (Bailey et al, 2022). Also these differences make it important to examine fertility trends by demographic group in order to gain a better understanding of the role of these factors.…”

From bust to boom? Birth and fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

“…These disruptions were mostly short-lived, occurring especially in the early months of the pandemic (March to May 2020) and varied greatly across countries. They did not affect all populations equally: in the context of the United States, characterised by huge social status inequalities as well as unequal access to health care services, Bailey et al (2022) show that low-income women with no health insurance experienced an increase in unplanned pregnancies and births during the pandemic. In Moldova, Emery and Koops (2022) found that the lockdowns in the early stage of the pandemic limited access to long-lasting contraception in rural Moldova, resulting in a higher use of short-term methods, especially condoms.…”

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of births in Pernambuco Brazil

“…The prediction that there could eventually be an increase in the number of births with the lockdown and the resulting decrease in access to contraceptives for a significant portion of the population (Guedes et al, 2021;Bailey et al, 2022;Berrington et al, 2022) was quickly discarded after observing the evolution of the number of births in Brazil. Even with the economic and social impacts (IPEA, 2021) the number of births was not reduced.…”