The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its Applications. 2nd Edition.

Radcliffe, J.

doi:10.2307/2346882

Cited by 32 publications

(45 citation statements)

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“…Meanwhile, in the process of infectious disease transmission, susceptible individuals contact infected individuals and become infected with a certain probability. There is a lot of evidence that the incidence rate is an important tool to describe this process [4, 5, 28]. It represents the infection ability of a infected individuals in per-unit time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fractional-order SEIHDR model for COVID-19 with inter-city networked coupling effects

Chen

et al. 2020

Preprint

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A novel coronavirus, designated as COVID-19, emerged in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to analyze the dynamic behavior of COVID-19. Based on inter-city networked coupling effects, a fractional-order SEIHDR system with the real-data from 23 January to 18 March, 2020 of COVID-19 is discussed. Meanwhile, hospitalized individuals and the mortality rates of three types of individuals (exposed, infected and hospitalized) are firstly taken into account in the proposed model. And infectivity of individuals during incubation is also considered in this paper. By applying least squares method and predictor-correctors scheme, the numerical solutions of the proposed system in the absence of the inter-city network and with the inter-city network are stimulated by using the real-data from 23 January to 18 − m March, 2020 where m is equal to the number of prediction days. Compared with integer-order system (α = 0), the fractional-order model without network is validated to have a better fitting of the data on Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Huanggang and other cities. In contrast to the case without network, the results indicate that the inter-city network system may be not a significant case to virus spreading for China because of the lock down and quarantine measures, however, it may have an impact on cities that have not adopted city closure. Meanwhile, the proposed model better fits the data from 24 February to 31, March in Italy, and the peak number of confirmed people is also predicted by this fraction-order model. Furthermore, the existence and uniqueness of a bounded solution under the initial condition are considered in the proposed system. Afterwards, the basic reproduction number R 0 is analyzed and it is found to hold a threshold: the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when R 0 ≤ 1, which provides a theoretical basis for whether COVID-19 will become a pandemic in the future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fractional-order SEIHDR model for COVID-19 with inter-city networked coupling effects

Chen

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…The transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 were modelled with a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describing an eleven-compartment susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) model (see Supplementary Methods ) [41]. The schematic of the model is shown in Figure S1 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality: A New York State Modelling Study

Hoffman

2020

Preprint

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Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most significant global health crisis of the 21 st century. The aim of this study was to develop a model to estimate the effect of undocumented infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, on the transmission, morbidity, and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State (NYS). Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by undocumented infections, and a peak basic reproductive number in NYS of 5.7. NPIs have been effective, and relaxation >50% will result in tens-of-thousands more deaths. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained immunity. As a result, until an effective vaccine or other effective pharmaceutical intervention is developed, it will be critical to not reduce NPIs >50% below current levels. This study establishes fundamental characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which can help policymakers navigate combating this virus in the coming years.J u l 2 0 2 0 J a n 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 0 J a n 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 0 J a n 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 0 J a n 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 1 50 60 70 80 90 100

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“…The transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 were modelled with a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describing an eleven-compartment susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) model (see S1 Appendix) [41]. The schematic of the model is shown in S1 Fig.…”

Section: Transmission Model Of Sars-cov-2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Significant relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions may result in profound mortality: A New York state modelling study

Hoffman

2020

PLoS ONE

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Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most significant global health crisis of the 21 st century. The aim of this study was to develop a model to simulate the effect of undocumented infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the transmission, morbidity, and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State (NYS) based on data collected between March 4 and April 28, 2020. Simulations predict that undocumented infections significantly contribute to infectivity, NPIs are effective in reducing morbidity and mortality, and relaxation >50% of NPIs from initial lockdown levels may result in tens-of-thousands more deaths. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of sustained immunity. As a result, until an effective vaccine or other effective pharmaceutical intervention is developed, the risks of significantly reducing NPIs should be carefully considered. This study employs modelling to simulate fundamental characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which can help policymakers navigate combating this virus in the coming years.

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The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its Applications. 2nd Edition.

Abstract: The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its Applications. (2nd edition.) By Norman T. J. Bailey. London and High Wycombe, Griffin, 1975. xvi, 413 p. 9·5 cm. £14·00.

Cited by 32 publications

References 0 publications

A fractional-order SEIHDR model for COVID-19 with inter-city networked coupling effects

A fractional-order SEIHDR model for COVID-19 with inter-city networked coupling effects

Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality: A New York State Modelling Study

Significant relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions may result in profound mortality: A New York state modelling study

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