Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality: A New York State Modelling Study

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most significant global health crisis of the 21 st century. The aim of this study was to develop a model to estimate the effect of undocumented infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, on the transmission, morbidity, and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State (NYS). Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by undocumented infections, and a peak basic reproductive number in NYS of 5.7. NPIs have been effective, and relaxation >50% will result in tens-of-thousands more deaths. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained immunity. As a result, until an effective vaccine or other effective pharmaceutical intervention is developed, it will be critical to not reduce NPIs >50% below current levels. This study establishes fundamental characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which can help policymakers navigate combating this virus in the coming years.J u l 2 0 2 0 J a n 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 0 J a n 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 0 J a n 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 0 J a n 2 0 2 1 J u l 2 0 2 1 50 60 70 80 90 100