The Macroeconomic Impact of AIDS in Malawi: a Dualistic, Labour Surplus Economy

Cuddington, John T.; Hancock, John D.

doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.jae.a036821

Cited by 37 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…used a Solow type growth model to study the growth effects of AIDS in Malawi. This model was extended in Cuddington and Hancock (1995) to allow a dualistic labor surplus economy and in to include demographic and epidemic equations that can be used to study how AIDS related policies impact the macroeconomy. Similar conclusions concerning sizeable aggregate effects have been reported by Arndt and Lewis (2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

AIDS crisis and growth

Corrigan

Glomm

Mendez

2005

Journal of Development Economics

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

AIDS crisis and growth

Corrigan

Glomm

Mendez

2005

Journal of Development Economics

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“…These studies suggest that, in the absence of effective treatment, substantial productivity losses – on the order of a one percent reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) growth per year – could occur in countries with generalized HIV epidemics [6], [49], [62], [63], [64], [65], [66].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Returns to Investment in AIDS Treatment in Low and Middle Income Countries

Resch¹,

Korenromp

Stover

et al. 2011

PLoS ONE

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Since the early 2000s, aid organizations and developing country governments have invested heavily in AIDS treatment. By 2010, more than five million people began receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) – yet each year, 2.7 million people are becoming newly infected and another two million are dying without ever having received treatment. As the need for treatment grows without commensurate increase in the amount of available resources, it is critical to assess the health and economic gains being realized from increasingly large investments in ART. This study estimates total program costs and compares them with selected economic benefits of ART, for the current cohort of patients whose treatment is cofinanced by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. At end 2011, 3.5 million patients in low and middle income countries will be receiving ART through treatment programs cofinanced by the Global Fund. Using 2009 ART prices and program costs, we estimate that the discounted resource needs required for maintaining this cohort are $14.2 billion for the period 2011–2020. This investment is expected to save 18.5 million life-years and return $12 to $34 billion through increased labor productivity, averted orphan care, and deferred medical treatment for opportunistic infections and end-of-life care. Under alternative assumptions regarding the labor productivity effects of HIV infection, AIDS disease, and ART, the monetary benefits range from 81 percent to 287 percent of program costs over the same period. These results suggest that, in addition to the large health gains generated, the economic benefits of treatment will substantially offset, and likely exceed, program costs within 10 years of investment.

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“…Cuddington and Hancock used a neoclassical one sector, two factor growth models to predict economic growth in Tanzania and Malawi [12]. They found that over the period 1985-2010, average annual GDP growth would be reduced by 1.1% points in Tanzania and 1.5 percentage points in Malawi.…”

Section: Sharp Investigated the Economic Impact Of Hiv/aids In Russia;mentioning

confidence: 99%