The Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices: Universal Meteorological Drought Index Recommended

Hayes, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark D.; Wall, Nicole; Widhalm, Melissa

doi:10.1175/2010bams3103.1

Cited by 680 publications

(352 citation statements)

References 2 publications

(1 reference statement)

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“…This index quantifies the number of standard deviations that accumulated precipitation in a given time scale deviates from the average value of a location in a particular period. The SPI is a powerful, flexible index that is simple to calculate, it has been recommended by the Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices (Hayes et al, 2011) and according to Penalba and Rivera (2015) is the most adequate meteorological drought index for SSA. For the calculation of the SPI, the accumulated precipitation time series were divided in 12 monthly series of 48 years, each of them were fitted to a two-parameter gamma probability density function.…”

Section: Precipitation Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation response to El Niño/La Niña events in Southern South America – emphasis in regional drought occurrences

Penalba

Rivera

2016

Adv. Geosci.

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Abstract. The ENSO phenomenon is one of the key factors that influence the interannual variability of precipitation over Southern South America. The aim of this study is to identify the regional response of precipitation to El Niño/La Niña events, with emphasis in drought conditions. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to characterize precipitation variabilities through the 1961-2008 period for time scales of 3 (SPI3) and 12 (SPI12) months. A regionalization based on rotated principal component analysis allowed to identify seven coherent regions for each of the time scales considered. In order to identify the regional influence of El Niño and La Niña events on the SPI time series, we calculated the mean SPI values for the El Niño and La Niña years and assessed its significance through bootstrap analysis. We found coherent and significant SPI responses to ENSO phases in most of the seven regions considered, mainly for the SPI12 time series. The precipitation response to La Niña events is characterized with regional deficits, identified with negative values of the SPI during the end of La Niña year and the year after. During El Niño events the precipitation response is reversed and more intense/consistent than in the case of La Niña events. This signal has some regional differences regarding its magnitude and timing, and the quantification of these features, together with the assessment of the SST composites during drought conditions provided critical baseline information for the agricultural and water resources sectors.

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Section: Precipitation Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation response to El Niño/La Niña events in Southern South America – emphasis in regional drought occurrences

Penalba

Rivera

2016

Adv. Geosci.

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“…It may be regarded as a slow-moving hazard that presents no single or universal definition (Hayes et al, 2011;Lloyde, 2014). However, it is well known that a prolonged and abnormally dry period can severely impact virtually all human and natural processes (Blain, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices stated that the national hydrological and meteorological services around the Globe should use the SPI to characterize meteorological droughts (Hayes et al, 2011). This declaration also stated that the World Meteorological Organization should encourage the widespread use of the SPI in countries wanting to track meteorological droughts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inadequacy of the gamma distribution to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index

Blain

Meschiatti

2015

Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient.

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A B S T R A C TThe Standardized Precipitation Index was developed as a probability-based index able to monitor rainfall deficit in a standardized or normalized way. Thus, the performance of this drought index is affected by the use of a distribution that does not provide an appropriate fit for the rainfall data. The goal of this study was to evaluate the adjustment of the gamma distribution for the rainfall amounts summed over several time scales (Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil), to assess the goodness-of-fit of alternative distributions to these rainfall series and to evaluate the normality assumption of the Standardized Precipitation Index series calculated from several distributions. Based on the Lilliefors test and on a normality test, it is verified that the gamma distribution is not suitable for calculating this Index in several timescales. The generalized normal distribution presented the best performance among all analysed distributions. It was also concluded that the drought early warning systems and the academic studies should re-evaluate the use of the gamma distribution in the Standardized Precipitation Index calculation algorithm. A computational code that allows calculating this drought index based on the generalized normal distribution has also been provided. Inadequação da distribuição gama para o cálculo do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação R E S U M OO Índice Padronizado de Precipitação foi desenvolvido para ser um método probabilístico que monitora os déficits de precipitação pluvial, de forma normalizada. Assim, a confiabilidade deste índice é afetada pelo uso de distribuições inadequadas aos dados de precipitação. Com isto, o objetivo do trabalho foi: avaliar o ajuste da distribuição gama aos totais de precipitação acumulados em distintas escalas temporais (Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul), analisar o desempenho de demais distribuições no cálculo desse índice e avaliar o pressuposto de normalidade das séries desse quantificador de seca, calculadas com base nessas distintas distribuições. Os testes Lilliefors e de normalidade indicaram que a distribuição gama não é apropriada para o cálculo do índice em diversas escalas temporais. A distribuição generalizada normal mostrou-se apropriada. O uso desta função também resultou no maior número de séries com distribuição normal. Recomenda-se, então, que os sistemas de monitoramento de seca e os estudos acadêmicos reavaliem o uso da distribuição gama no cálculo do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação. Um código computacional capaz de calcular este índice de seca a partir da distribuição generalizada normal é também apresentado.

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“…En el año 2009, en la ciudad de Lincoln, bajo los auspicios del National Drougth Mitigation Center de la Universidad de Nebraska, se llevó a cabo un taller internacional para analizar los índices para la sequía en uso por los centros meteorológicos mundiales y en investigación (ver Hayes et al, 2011). Se llegó a un consenso entre los integrantes del taller para hacer uso de un solo índice y así poder generar una base de datos mundial.…”

Section: Métodosunclassified

Tendencias de la precipitación y su relación con el Índice Oceánico El Niño. El caso de la Región Mixteca, México

Austria

Díaz-Jiménez

2018

ing.agua

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Martínez-Austria y Díaz-Jiménez | Tendencias de la precipitación y su relación con el Índice Oceánico El Niño. El […] RESUMENLa ocurrencia de sequías es una preocupación constante en zonas áridas y semiáridas, especialmente cuando se trata de regiones socialmente vulnerables como es el caso de la Región Mixteca en México, condición que puede agravarse según se anticipa de los escenarios de cambio climático. Los modelos de circulación general no permiten prever las condiciones de precipitación en escalas regionales, por lo que se hace necesario el estudio de las tendencias y comportamientos climáticos locales. Determinar la relación entre el clima local y fenómenos de gran escala, como los eventos El Niño/La Niña, es de relevancia para establecer medidas de prevención. En este artículo se analiza la tendencia de la precipitación en la región Mixteca de México, se determina la presencia de una tendencia estadísticamente significativa a la disminución en la precipitación, y se analiza la relación entre las condiciones de precipitación en la zona y el Índice Oceánico El Niño. Se muestra que existe una tendencia estadísticamente significativa de disminución de la precipitación, y se encuentra que existe una correlación entre el índice Oceánico El Niño y las condiciones de precipitación extrema -humedad o sequía-en la región.Palabras clave | Tendencias de precipitación; precipitación y cambio climático; sequías; Índice Estandarizado de Sequías; Índice Oceánico El Niño; Región Mixteca. ABSTRACT

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The Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices: Universal Meteorological Drought Index Recommended

Abstract: No Abstract available.

Cited by 680 publications

References 2 publications

Precipitation response to El Niño/La Niña events in Southern South America – emphasis in regional drought occurrences

Precipitation response to El Niño/La Niña events in Southern South America – emphasis in regional drought occurrences

Inadequacy of the gamma distribution to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index

Tendencias de la precipitación y su relación con el Índice Oceánico El Niño. El caso de la Región Mixteca, México

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