The legislative elections in El Salvador, 2012 and 2015

España‐Nájera, Annabella

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2016.02.007

Cited by 1 publication

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“…Whereas the theory advances our understanding of party system change, the question remains whether such specifications apply to the sudden disruption of institutionalised and ideologically polarised party systems. Since democratisation, El Salvador’s institutionalised party system aligned voters ideologically (Azpuru, 2010; España-Nájera, 2016; Jones, 2011; Lucas, 2013; Roberts, 2014; Wade, 2016). The country avoided the programmatic dealignment common in Latin America following the dual-transition era because the ruling ARENA implemented neoliberalism, and the FMLN remained in opposition (Roberts, 2014).…”

Section: Theory and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nayib Bukele’s rise to El Salvador’s presidency casts doubt on that narrative. Following the country’s transition to democracy in the mid-1990s, the leftist Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) and rightist Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) comprised an institutionalised and ideologically polarised party system (Azpuru, 2010; de Zeeuw, 2010; España-Nájera, 2016; Jones, 2011; Lucas, 2013; Roberts, 2014). Both parties received a combined majority of votes in presidential and legislative elections.…”

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confidence: 99%

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The disruption of an institutionalised and polarised party system: Discontent with democracy and the rise of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador

Perelló

Navia

2022

Politics

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Studies on party system collapse or individual-party breakdowns view programmatic inconsistency or convergence as necessary for abrupt party system change. In theory, a new or fringe contender can suddenly emerge and disrupt the party system under such circumstances. We test that claim by examining Nayib Bukele’s 2019 presidential election victory in El Salvador. With data from the AmericasBarometer, we estimate probit models and predictive margins to examine the individual-level determinants of disruption in an institutionalised and ideologically polarised party system. The empirical results reveal that Bukele won amid salient ideological differences between traditional parties and that critical views towards democracy fueled his core support. Therefore, we conclude that a significant disruption in an institutionalised party system can occur notwithstanding robust ideological differences between leading contenders. Critical attitudes towards democracy can represent a driving force behind a party system’s disruption.

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Section: Theory and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%