The disruption of an institutionalised and polarised party system: Discontent with democracy and the rise of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador

Abstract

Studies on party system collapse or individual-party breakdowns view programmatic inconsistency or convergence as necessary for abrupt party system change. In theory, a new or fringe contender can suddenly emerge and disrupt the party system under such circumstances. We test that claim by examining Nayib Bukele’s 2019 presidential election victory in El Salvador. With data from the AmericasBarometer, we estimate probit models and predictive margins to examine the individual-level determinants of disruption in an institutionalised and ideologically polarised party system. The empirical results reveal that Bukele won amid salient ideological differences between traditional parties and that critical views towards democracy fueled his core support. Therefore, we conclude that a significant disruption in an institutionalised party system can occur notwithstanding robust ideological differences between leading contenders. Critical attitudes towards democracy can represent a driving force behind a party system’s disruption.

Peace Promotion through Restorative Community Design: Five Case Studies in Latin America

“…In the case of the latter, global figures seem to show signs of good governance [36]. Nevertheless, several scholars doubt that these autocratic decision-making methods that disregard human rights and community dialogue will be effective in the long run and fear that they could further erode democracy [37,38]. Consequently, many societies seem stuck in a vicious cycle in which elected governments fail to accomplish sufficient socioeconomic progress which ends up exacerbating disenchantment and learned helplessness in the population that then moves to elect authoritarian regimes.…”

¿Democracia bajo acecho? La reelección en El Salvador y el discurso político de Nayib Bukele en Twitter

“…Por su parte, el poder judicial se vio inoperante ante los desafíos de ofrecer un escenario de legalidad efectivo. Pero quizá el problema más grande que enfrentó el país, agravado por la gestión económica y de medidas de seguridad, fue el de las "maras", pandillas que sometieron al Estado salvadoreño y a la población en general a un clima de violencia hostil (Perelló y Navia, 2022;Roque, 2021).…”

“…Su gestión como alcalde destacó por las obras sociales que implementó, precedidas de su buena relación con empresarios. En este periodo se presenta como un político vinculado a la izquierda, lo que, años después en la contienda presidencial, cambió (Perelló y Navia, 2022;Roque, 2021).…”

“…Bukele aprovechó este acontecimiento para armar una campaña a su favor, en la que se presentó como víctima del sistema bipartidista, mismo que perdía fuerza. Frente a la inviabilidad de inscribir su nuevo partido (Nuevas Ideas) por cuestiones de tiempo de inscripción, Bukele formó parte de la estructura del partido del ala derechista, Gran Alianza por la Unidad Nacional (GANA), y logró alzarse con la victoria presidencial poniendo fin al bipartidismo entre ARENA y el FMLN (Grassetti, 2020;Perelló y Navia, 2022;Roque, 2021).…”

Nayib Bukele: populism and autocratization, or a very popular democratically elected president?

“…During the presidential campaign and his time in office, Nayib Bukele has been recognized as everything from a millennial boy, a social media star, a populist and a maverick to a millennial dictator or someone at least related to millennial authoritarianism (Baldovinos, 2021;Meléndez-Sánchez, 2021;Perelló, Navia, 2022). Bukele was elected as mayor for FMLN in the small town of Nuevo Cuscatlán 2012 and the capital of San Salvador in 2015, but was forced to leave the party in 2017 after frequent criticism of FMLN leadership.…”