The followin is a compndium of several publications and undmred presentations which are either in the public domain or published wik the pemuuion of the aulhors.The conlents annot be and have not been verified by the University for security iWes or concerning any mpriet;lry infom2tion they ma contain The Univeisit : thus, mka no representations rvhtmever that the m a t e r i a l i n t ~ p u b ~ a t i o n c o n t n o r e s t r i c t e d o r ~ i f i e d ~ ~ n f o r m a t i o n o r ~ t it Lasbeendead forpublicationbylheUniversity orthatitcontainsno third-partyproprietarydata. ?his davment was p q a r e d ils an a w u n t of work sponsod by an a ency of the United Stales Government Neither the United States Gobemment nor the UniverSity of California nor an of their em$oyees, makes any xvamtv ap-or implied, or assumes any legal bbility or responsibility for Ihe accuracy compLenes, or usefulness of any informati06 apparatus, product, or proces dirlosed, or represents that its use would not infnn e privately owned rights. Refercncp herein to any s w c commercial product, p e s or A c e by bade name, hadmirk, mnukiaurer, or othenvk, does not nh-sriIy constitute or imply its endowment,-&endation, or favoring by the United States Government or the University of Califorma. The viavs and opinions of authors express4 herein do not necesarilystate or d e d those of the Uniled Stales Government or the University of California, and shall notbeused foradvertLingorproductendorsement pu~posej d i z y x r t hasbeen reprodud m t h e k t availablecopy Available to DOE and WE conhctors fmm the Office ofsentific andTechnica1 Information P.O. Bos 62 Oak Rid e, TN 37831 PricgavailabIefmm (615) 5k3lOl,FE6wUlll Available to the public fmm the Nationa1Tefhnical InformationService US. De rtment of Commerce &Port Pa .ill Rd., Sprin&eld,dA PI61 Some recent developments in nuclear proliferation have been cause for alarm; namely, the confused situation regarding the nuclear weapon complex of the former Soviet Union that resulted from the fall of the Eastern Bloc, and the surprising discovery of Iraq's nuclear program despite its being a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). These phenomena not only reinforced a climate of worry during preparation for renewal of the NPT, but also led the United States to develop plans for a major new program in counterproliferation, including a program of missile defense (a revision of the previous Strategic Defense Initiative). Certainly, conditions that favor nuclear proliferation have increased. It should not necessarily be concluded, however, that these conditions will inevitably lead to a plague. A reasonable analysis of the situation is required. Specifically, two key questions must be answered: (1) Should nuclear proliferation be considered as the major danger of the future? and (2) What is the danger exactly? To respond, the following must be addressed: New factors contributing to proliferation must be identified and their credibility adjudged. The means and difficulties of producing ea...