The Interplay between COVID-19 and the Economy in Canada

Abstract

We propose a generalized susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model to track COVID-19 in Canadian provinces, taking into account the impact of the pandemics on unemployment. The model is based on a network representing provinces, where the contact between individuals from different locations is defined by a data-driven mixing matrix. Moreover, we use time-dependent parameters to account for the dynamical evolution of the disease incidence, as well as changes in the rates of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death. Unemployment is accounted for as a reduction in the social interaction, which translates into smaller transmission parameters. Conversely, the model assumes that higher proportions of infected individuals reduce overall economic activity and therefore increase unemployment. We tested the model using publicly available sources and found that it is able to reproduce the reported data with remarkable in-sample accuracy. We also tested the model’s ability to make short-term out-of-sample forecasts and found it very satisfactory, except in periods of rapid changes in behavior. Finally, we present long-term predictions for both epidemiological and economic variables under several future vaccination scenarios.

Editorial: A Systemic Recovery

“…This review places the economic resilience framework, inspired by the communication theory of resilience, in conversation with extant literature in economics, communication studies, and other disciplines and concludes with an outline for further theoretical, methodological, and practical development. Albani et al (2022) developed a combined economic-epidemiological model to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada. Such models are useful for policymakers and the model can be run under a variety of plausible parameter values and policy scenarios (e.g., vaccination intervals) to obtain the range of outcomes for the variables of interest, notably deaths and unemployed individuals.…”

Stochastic Transmission in Epidemiological Models

“…These authorities must also appropriately adjust the intensity of lockdowns and movement restrictions to minimize the impact on the labor market and the economy in general. In fact, during 2020, many countries implemented socioeconomic measures to alleviate the impact of lockdowns, furnishing income to those that lost their jobs [2, 4], which could have helped the stay-at-home policies.…”

“…In fact, during 2020, many countries implemented socioeconomic measures to alleviate the impact of lockdowns, furnishing income to those that lost their jobs [2,4], which could have helped the stay-at-home policies.…”