The integration of PESETA sectoral economic impacts into the GEM-E3 Europe model: methodology and results

Cı́scar, Juan Carlos; Szabó, László; Regemorter, Denise Van; Soria, Antonio

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0343-y

Cited by 31 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 17 publications

(13 reference statements)

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“…Analyses based on the DIVA model have also provided widely-used inputs to top-down models (Agrawala et al 2010;Ciscar et al 2012;; see Section 2.2). The PESETA project (Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up analysis) uses this version of the DIVA model to estimate the physical and monetary impacts of climate change on coastal systems in Europe (Richards and Nicholls 2009).…”

Section: Nonementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, sea level rise, and coastal disasters. A review of modeling practices

Bosello

Cian

2014

Energy Economics

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Abstract.The climate change impacts on sea level rise and coastal disasters, and the possible adaptation responses have been studied using very different approaches, such as very detailed site-specific engineering studies and global macroeconomic assessments of costal zones vulnerability. This paper reviews the methodologies and the modeling practices used by the sea level rise literature. It points at the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, motivating differences in results and in policy implications. Based on the studies surveyed, this paper also identifies potential directions for future research.

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Section: Nonementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, sea level rise, and coastal disasters. A review of modeling practices

Bosello

Cian

2014

Energy Economics

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“…The CGE analysis follows a static comparative approach (as in e.g. Aaheim et al 2012;Ciscar et al 2012), estimating the counterfactual of future SLR (simulated in the 2080s) occurring under the current socioeconomic conditions. Therefore, the SLR future scenarios are shocking the current economy (base year of the model, 2007), without considering that there will be economic growth and demographic change from now to the end of the century.…”

Section: Modelling Methodology For Economy-wide Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The DIVA model itself uses data for SLR provided by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the multi-model climate experiment from the European Commission ENSEMBLES project. The model is well established, having been widely used for peer-reviewed publications (including for earlier estimates of SLR damages for Europe such as Bosello et al (2012) and Ciscar et al (2012), using the GEM-E3 model, Capros et al (2013)). …”

Section: Data For the Direct Costs Of Sea-level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment

Pycroft

Abrell

Cı́scar

2015

Environ Resource Econ

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This paper investigates the world-wide economic cost of rapid sea-level rise of the kind that could be caused by accelerated ice flow from the West Antarctic and/or the Greenland ice sheets. Such an event would have direct impacts on economic activities located near the coastline and indirect impacts further inland. Using data from the DIVA model on sea floods, river floods, land loss, salinisation and forced migration, we analyse the effects of these damages in a computable general equilibrium model for 25 world regions. We consider three sea-level rise scenarios that correspond to 0.47, 1.12 and 1.75 m by the 2080s. By incorporating a wider range of damage categories, implemented in an economy-wide framework and including very rapid sea-level rise, the study offers a new contribution to climate change impact studies. We find that the loss of GDP worldwide is 0.5 % in the highest sea-level rise scenario, with a loss of welfare (equivalent variation) of almost 2 % world-wide. Within these aggregates, there are large regional disparities, with the Central Europe North region and parts of South-East Asia and South Asia being especially prone to high costs (welfare losses in the range of 4-12 %). The analysis assumes that there is not public adaptation, which would substantially lower the costs. In this way, the analysis demonstrates what is at risk, and could be used to justify adaptation expenses.

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“…Recently, the model was also deployed to analyze macroeconomic climate change impacts (e.g. by Ciscar et al, 2012).…”

Section: A5 Representative Cge Models For the Energy System Of An Ecmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling for insights not numbers: The long-term low-carbon transformation

Schinko

Bachner

Schleicher

et al. 2017

Atm

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RESUMENLimitar el calentamiento global para evitar un cambio climático peligroso requiere una drástica reducción de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y la transformación hacia una sociedad hipocarbónica. Los modelos económicos energético y climático, que sustentan la toma de decisiones políticas en la actualidad en el camino hacia una sociedad de cero emisiones netas, se perciben con creciente escepticismo en cuanto a su capacidad para pronosticar la evolución de sistemas socio-ecológicos altamente complejos y no lineales. Presentamos un revisión sistemática de la literatura de los últimos avances de los enfoques de modelización, centrándonos en su capacidad y limitaciones para desarrollar y evaluar las trayectorias hacia una sociedad hipocarbónica. Encontramos que los enfoques metodológicos existentes tienen algunas deficiencias fundamentales que limitan su potencial para entender las sutilezas de los procesos de descarbonización a largo plazo. Por tanto, un marco metodológico útil debe ir más allá de las actuales técnicas cumpliendo simultáneamente los siguientes requisitos: 1) representación de un análisis inherentemente dinámico, describiendo e investigando explícitamente las trayectorias entre los diferentes estados de las variables del sistema, 2) especificación de los detalles de la cascada energética, particularmente el papel central de las funcionalidades y servicios provistos por la interacción de flujos energéticos y las correspondientes variables de stock, 3) presentación de una clara distinción entre estructuras del sistema energético sociotécnico y los mecanismos socioeconómicos para desarrollarlo, y 4) capacidad para evaluar las trayectorias conjuntamente con criterios sociales. Para ello proponemos el desarrollo de un marco de modelización integrado versátil y multiobjetivo, partiendo de las fortalezas de los varios enfoques de modelización disponibles al mismo tiempo que excluyendo sus debilidades. Este estudio identifica las respectivas fortalezas y debilidades para guiar dicho desarrollo. ABSTRACTLimiting global warming to prevent dangerous climate change requires drastically reducing global greenhouse gases emissions and a transformation towards a low-carbon society. Existing energy-and climate-economic modeling approaches that are informing policy and decision makers in shaping the future net-zero emissions society are increasingly seen with skepticism regarding their ability to forecast the long-term evolution of highly complex, nonlinear social-ecological systems. We present a structured review of state-of-the-art modeling approaches, focusing on their ability and limitations to develop and assess pathways towards a low-carbon society. We find that existing methodological approaches have some fundamental deficiencies that limit their potential to understand the subtleties of long-term low-carbon transformation processes. We suggest that a useful methodological framework has to move beyond current state of the art techniques and has to simultaneously fulfill the following require...

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The integration of PESETA sectoral economic impacts into the GEM-E3 Europe model: methodology and results

Cited by 31 publications

References 17 publications

Climate change, sea level rise, and coastal disasters. A review of modeling practices

Climate change, sea level rise, and coastal disasters. A review of modeling practices

The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment

Modeling for insights not numbers: The long-term low-carbon transformation

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