The Influences of the Model Configuration on the Simulation of Stratospheric Northern-Hemisphere Polar Vortex in the CMIP5 Models

Cai, Zelin; Wei, Ke; Xu, Lujun; Lan, Xiaoqing; Chen, Wen; Nath, Debashis

doi:10.1155/2017/7326759

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 62 publications

(55 reference statements)

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“…The fidelity of the stratospheric polar vortex predicted by a model shows some dependency on the number of vertical levels and location of the model top (Charlton-Perez et al, 2013;Cai et al 2017). As shown in Table 1, the number of vertical levels in the S2S models vary from 17 (BoM) to 91 (ECMWF).…”

Section: Mjo Teleconnections To the Northern Hemisphere Geopotential ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems

Stan

Zheng

Chang

et al. 2022

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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This study evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems to represent and predict the teleconnections of the Madden Julian Oscillations and their effects on weather in terms of midlatitude weather patterns and North Atlantic tropical cyclones. This evaluation of forecast systems applies novel diagnostics developed to track teleconnections along their preferred pathways in the troposphere and stratosphere, and to measure the global and regional responses induced by teleconnections across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Results of this study will help the modeling community understand to what extent the potential to predict the weather on S2S time scales is achieved by the current generation of forecasting systems, while informing where to focus further development efforts. The findings of this study will also provide impact modelers and decision makers with a better understanding of the potential of S2S predictions related to MJO teleconnections.

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Section: Mjo Teleconnections To the Northern Hemisphere Geopotential ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems

Stan

Zheng

Chang

et al. 2022

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…The improvements in modern climate models, such as an increase in the upper boundary and vertical resolution in the stratosphere, and the adding of non-orographic gravity waves parametrization allowed to improve the simulation of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex variability [25]. However, many open questions still remain.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5

et al. 2021

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Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values.

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