The Influence of Urbanization on the Development of a Convective Storm—A Study for the Belém Metropolitan Region, Brazil

Abstract

One of the main problems faced by the Belém Metropolitan Region (BMR) inhabitants is flash floods caused by precarious infrastructure and extreme rainfall events. The objective of this article is to investigate whether and how the local urban characteristics may influence the development of thunderstorms. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used with three distinct configurations of land use/cover to represent urbanization scenarios in 2017 and 1986 and the forest-only scenario. The WRF model simulated reasonably well the event. The results showed that the urban characteristics of the BMR may have an impact on storm systems in the urban areas close to the Northern Coast of South America. In particular, for the urban characteristics in the BMR in 2017, the intensification of the storm may be linked to a higher value of energy available for convection (over 1000 J kg−1) and favorable wind convergence and vertical shear in the urban area (where the wind speed at the surface was more than 3 m s−1 slower than in the forest-only scenario). Meanwhile, the other land cover scenarios could not produce a similar storm due to lack of moisture, wind convergence/shear, or convective energy.