The Influence of Climate Change on Three Dominant Alpine Species under Different Scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with high altitude and low temperature is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and has recently experienced continuous warming. The species distribution on the QTP has undergone significant changes especially an upward shift with global warming in the past decades. In this study, two dominant trees (Picea crassifolia Kom and Sabina przewalskii Kom) and one dominant shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) were selected and their potential distributions using the MaxEnt model during three periods (current, the 2050s and the 2070s) were predicted. The predictions were based on four shared socio-economic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely, SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, SSP8.5. The predicted current potential distribution of three species was basically located in the northeastern of QTP, and the distribution of three species was most impacted by aspect, elevation, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, Subsoil CEC (clay), Subsoil bulk density and Subsoil CEC (soil). There were significant differences in the potential distribution of three species under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s including expanding, shifting, and shrinking. The total suitable habitat for Picea crassifolia shrank under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and enlarged under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. On the contrary, the total suitable habitat for Sabina przewalskii enlarged under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and shrank under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The total suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia continued to increase with SSP2.6 to SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The average elevation in potentially suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia all increased except under SSP8.5 in the 2050s. Our study provides an important reference for the conservation of Picea crassifolia, Sabina przewalskii, Potentilla parvifolia and other dominant plant species on the QTP under future climate change.

Prediction of the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Species Meconopsis punicea Maxim under Future Climate Change Based on Four Species Distribution Models

“…Our study supports that plants will migrate to higher latitudes under future climate change [ 3 , 7 ], but the potential distribution area of species will not necessarily shrink under future climate change [ 7 , 8 ]. By comparing different climate scenarios in the future, it is found that the potential distribution area of M. punicea will expand to the northwest more widely under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.…”

“…Climate not only plays an important role in the growth of plants, but also determines the distribution of species [ 1 , 2 ]. Future climate change will shift the distribution of species and even cause the extinction of species [ 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 ]. Some studies have indicated that species will disperse to higher latitudes and/or altitudes under climate change characterized by warming [ 3 , 10 , 11 , 12 ].…”

Predicting soil erosion potential under CMIP6 climate change scenarios in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia

“…Furthermore, the 4th scenario for the world’s greenhouse gases issue that is recognized as “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs) SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, SSP8.5 has been announced by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Chen et al 2020 ). These scenarios predict distinct greenhouse gas emission types, for instance, the SSP2.6 indicates low greenhouse gases emission, the SSP4.5, and SSP6 represent stable scenarios, whilst SSP8.5 expresses high greenhouse gases emission (Hu et al 2021 ). Several works have been conducted to estimate the effects of clime on the erosion of soil using distinct CMIP5–RCP periods all over the world for instance, in Iran (Hateffard et al 2021 ), Nepal (Talchabhadel et al 2019 ), Turkey (Orozbaev et al 2020 ), Sri Lanka (Senanayake and Pradhan 2022 ), Europe (Panagos et al 2021 ), Uzbekistan (Gafforov et al 2020 ), and Kenya (Watene et al 2021 ).…”

Mountain Biodiversity, Species Distribution and Ecosystem Functioning in a Changing World

“…However, the responses to climate change differ among different species. For example, the suitable habitat for Sabina przewalskii and Potentilla parvifolia will enlarge in the 2070s, while that of Picea crassifolia will shrink [8]. Capra sibirica, a Siberian ibex in eastern Pamir, may respond to climate change by shifting to higher latitudes due to habitat reduction under future climate scenarios [9].…”