The INDSCI-SIM model for COVID-19 in India

Hazra, Dhiraj Kumar; Pujari, Bhalchandra S.; Shekatkar, Snehal M.; Mozaffer, Farhina; Sinha, Sitabhra; Guttal, Vishwesha; Chaudhuri, Pinaki; Menon, Gautam I.

doi:10.1101/2021.06.02.21258203

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 97 publications

(95 reference statements)

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“…Higher number of filled grains/panicle (76.47), test weight (29.93 g), seed yield (2.95 t/ha), straw yield (6.70 t/ha) and biological yield (9.63 t/ha) were obtained with application of borax @ 10 kg/ ha. The findings were in accordance with the study reported by Hazra and Sinha (1996) and Khanday et al (2009). No significant interaction was found between ZnSO 4 and borax on yield components of oats.…”

Section: Yield Components and Yieldsupporting

confidence: 93%

Assessing the Impact of Zinc and Boron Supplementation on Oats Grown under Red and Lateritic Soil of West Bengal

Naik,

Barik,

Rai

2023

IJARe

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Background: Avena sativa L. (common oat) is the most important among the cultivated oat belongs to the Poaceae family and is known as Jai or Javi in Indian subcontinent. It is important winter forage in many parts of the world and is grown as multipurpose crop for grain, pasture, forage or as a rotation crop. Methods: A field experiment was conducted to study the effect of Zinc Sulphate and Borax on growth, yield components, yield and economics of oats seed production in red and lateritic soil of West Bengal during rabi seasons of 2015-16 and 2016-17 at agricultural farm, Institute of Agriculture, Visva-Bharati, Sriniketan, West Bengal. The experiment was laid out in Factorial Randomized Block Design having two factors each with four levels (Zinc Sulphate with 0, 15, 20 and 25 kg/ha as well as Borax with 0, 5, 10 and 15 kg/ha). Result: Pooled data over two years of experiments showed that soil application with Zinc Sulphate and Borax at various levels significantly influenced growth attributes (dry matter accumulation, leaf area index and crop growth rate), yield components (no. of panicles/m2, no. of filled grains/panicle and test weight), yield (seed yield, straw yield and biological yield) and economics of oats seed production. With increasing levels of ZnSO4 application, highest number of panicles/m2 (196.27), seed yield (3.00 t/ha), straw yield (6.94 t/ha) and biological yield (9.85 t/ha) were obtained at 25 kg/ha though these were at par with 20 kg ZnSO4 /ha. Higher number of filled grains/panicle (76.47), test weight (29.93 g), seed yield (2.95 t/ha), straw yield (6.70 t/ha) and biological yield (9.63 t/ha) were found with application of borax @ 10 kg/ha. The highest gross return, net return and return per rupee investment was achieved with application of ZnSO4 @ 20 kg/ha (₹ 1,17,257/ha, ₹ 68,997/ha and 2.65, respectively) which was significantly higher than both of 25 kg ZnSO4/ha (₹ 1,15,051/ha, ₹ 64,489/ha, and 2.52, respectively) and 15 kg ZnSO4/ha (₹ 1,05,198/ha, ₹ 59,240/ha and 2.44, respectively). Similarly, highest gross return, net return and return per rupee investment was obtained with application of borax @ 10 kg/ha (₹ 1,15,537/ha, ₹ 69,070/ha and 2.67, respectively). A significant interaction between Zinc Sulphate and borax was found towards seed yield, biological yield, gross return, net return and return per rupee investment in oats seed production. Use of ZnSO4 at 20 kg/ha and borax at 10 kg/ha conjunctively achieved highest seed yield (3.28 t/ha), biological yield (10.81 t/ha), gross return (₹ 1, 27, 530/ha), net return (₹78,760/ha) and return per rupee investment (₹3.78) in oats seed production.

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Section: Yield Components and Yieldsupporting

confidence: 93%

Assessing the Impact of Zinc and Boron Supplementation on Oats Grown under Red and Lateritic Soil of West Bengal

Naik,

Barik,

Rai

2023

IJARe

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“…The rates and parameters used were derived from Kerr et al [ 33 ] and are presented in S4 and S5 Tables. We simulated the spread of COVID-19 (as a model for a respiratory disease) using the compartmental model described by Hazra et al [ 34 ] ( S10 Fig ) in the population in order to track differences in the spread of the infection due to the seasons.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal variations in social contact patterns in a rural population in north India: Implications for pandemic control

Nagpal,

Kumar,

Noronha

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Social contact mixing patterns are critical to model the transmission of communicable diseases, and have been employed to model disease outbreaks including COVID-19. Nonetheless, there is a paucity of studies on contact mixing in low and middle-income countries such as India. Furthermore, mathematical models of disease outbreaks do not account for the temporal nature of social contacts. We conducted a longitudinal study of social contacts in rural north India across three seasons and analysed the temporal differences in contact patterns. A contact diary survey was performed across three seasons from October 2015–16, in which participants were queried on the number, duration, and characteristics of contacts that occurred on the previous day. A total of 8,421 responses from 3,052 respondents (49% females) recorded characteristics of 180,073 contacts. Respondents reported a significantly higher number and duration of contacts in the winter, followed by the summer and the monsoon season (Nemenyi post-hoc, p<0.001). Participants aged 0–9 years and 10–19 years of age reported the highest median number of contacts (16 (IQR 12–21), 17 (IQR 13–24) respectively) and were found to have the highest node centrality in the social network of the region (pageranks = 0.20, 0.17). A large proportion (>80%) of contacts that were reported in schools or on public transport involved physical contact. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first from India to show that contact mixing patterns vary by the time of the year and provides useful implications for pandemic control. We compared the differences in the number, duration and location of contacts by age-group and gender, and studied the impact of the season, age-group, employment and day of the week on the number and duration of contacts using multivariate negative binomial regression. We created a social network to further understand the age and gender-specific contact patterns, and used the contact matrices in each season to parameterise a nine-compartment agent-based model for simulating a COVID-19 epidemic in each season. Our results can be used to parameterize more accurate mathematical models for prediction of epidemiological trends of infections in rural India.

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“…We have used parameter values from the INDSCI-SIM model. 25 The population is divided into age bands grouped into 10-year intervals: 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and 80+ years. Contacts between different age bands are differential, reflecting the social structure of the population.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We use contact matrices that are a weighted average over the contributions from different types of "locations" (e.g., home, workplace, school). 25,30 The weights may vary with time, appropriate to the interventions implemented at that point in time, and are described in Table 4.…”

Section: Reopening Schoolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of hybrid immunity, school reopening, and the Omicron variant on trajectory of COVID-19 epidemic in India: A modelling study

Mozaffer

Cherian

Krishna

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background: The course of the COVID-19 pandemic has been driven by several dynamic behavioral, immunological, and viral factors. We used mathematical modeling to explore how the concurrent reopening of schools, increasing levels of hybrid immunity, and the emergence of the Omicron variant have affected the trajectory of the pandemic in India, using the model Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (pop: 53 million). Methods: We constructed an age- and contact-structured compartmental model that allows for individuals to proceed through various states depending on whether they have received zero, one, or two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Our model is calibrated using results from other models as well as available serosurvey data. The introduction of the Omicron variant is modelled alongside protection gained from hybrid immunity. We predict disease dynamics in the background of hybrid immunity coming from infections and well as an ongoing vaccination program, given prior levels of seropositivity from earlier waves of infection. We describe the consequences of school reopening on cases across different age-bands, as well as the impact of the Omicron (BA.2) variant. Results: We show the existence of an epidemic peak that is strongly related to the value of background seroprevalence. As expected, because children were not vaccinated in India, re-opening schools increases the number of cases in children more than in adults, although most such cases are asymptomatic or mild. The height of this peak reduced as the background infection-induced seropositivity was increased from 20% to 40%. At reported values of seropositivity of 64%, no discernable peak was seen. We also explore counterfactual scenarios regarding the effect of vaccination on hybrid immunity. We find that in the absence of vaccination, even at such high levels of seroprevalence, the emergence of the Omicron variant would have resulted in a large rise in cases across all age bands. We conclude that the presence of high levels of hybrid immunity thus resulted in relatively fewer cases in the Omicron wave than in the Delta wave. Interpretation: In India, the decreasing prevalence of immunologically naive individuals of all ages helped reduce the number of cases reported once schools were reopened. In addition, hybrid immunity, together with the lower intrinsic severity of disease associated with the Omicron variant, contributed to low reported COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths.

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The INDSCI-SIM model for COVID-19 in India

Cited by 10 publications

References 97 publications

Assessing the Impact of Zinc and Boron Supplementation on Oats Grown under Red and Lateritic Soil of West Bengal

Assessing the Impact of Zinc and Boron Supplementation on Oats Grown under Red and Lateritic Soil of West Bengal

Seasonal variations in social contact patterns in a rural population in north India: Implications for pandemic control

Effect of hybrid immunity, school reopening, and the Omicron variant on trajectory of COVID-19 epidemic in India: A modelling study

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