The ongoing pandemic of 2019-nCov (COVID-19) coronavirus has made reliable epidemiological modeling an urgent necessity. Unfortunately, most of the existing models are either too fine-grained to be efficient or too coarse-grained to be reliable. Here we propose a computationally efficient hybrid approach that uses SIR model for individual cities which are in turn coupled via empirical transportation networks that facilitate migration among them. The treatment presented here differs from existing models in two crucial ways: first, self-consistent determination of coupling parameters so as to maintain the populations of individual cities, and second, the incorporation of distance dependent temporal delays in migration. We apply our model to Indian aviation as well as railway networks taking into account populations of more than 300 cities. Our results project that through the domestic transportation, the significant population is poised to be exposed within 90 days of the onset of epidemic. Thus, serious supervision of domestic transport networks is warranted even after restricting international migration.

Investigation of divisibility properties of natural numbers is one of the most important themes in the theory of numbers. Various tools have been developed over the centuries to discover and study the various patterns in the sequence of natural numbers in the context of divisibility. In the present paper, we study the divisibility of natural numbers using the framework of a growing complex network. In particular, using tools from the field of statistical inference, we show that the network is scale-free but has a non-stationary degree distribution. Along with this, we report a new kind of similarity pattern for the local clustering, which we call “stretching similarity”, in this network. We also show that the various characteristics like average degree, global clustering coefficient and assortativity coefficient of the network vary smoothly with the size of the network. Using analytical arguments we estimate the asymptotic behavior of global clustering and average degree which is validated using numerical analysis.

The characterization of heart dynamics with a view to distinguish abnormal from normal behavior is an interesting topic in clinical sciences. Here we present an analysis of the Electro-cardiogram (ECG) signals from several healthy and unhealthy subjects using the framework of dynamical systems approach to multifractal analysis. Our analysis differs from the conventional nonlinear analysis in that the information contained in the amplitude variations of the signal is being extracted and quantified. The results thus obtained reveal that the attractor underlying the dynamics of the heart has multifractal structure and the variations in the resultant multifractal spectra can clearly separate healthy subjects from unhealthy ones. We use supervised machine learning approach to build a model that predicts the group label of a new subject with very high accuracy on the basis of the multifractal parameters. By comparing the computed indices in the multifractal spectra with that of beat replicated data from the same ECG, we show how each ECG can be checked for variations within itself. The increased variability observed in the measures for the unhealthy cases can be a clinically meaningful index for detecting the abnormal dynamics of the heart.

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Estimating the burden of COVID-19 in India is difficult because the extent to which cases and deaths have been undercounted is hard to assess. Here, we use a 9-component, age-stratified, contact-structured epidemiological compartmental model, which we call the INDSCI-SIM model, to analyse the first wave of COVID-19 spread in India. We use INDSCI-SIM, together with Bayesian methods, to obtain optimal fits to daily reported cases and deaths across the span of the first wave of the Indian pandemic, over the period Jan 30, 2020 to Feb 15, 2021. We account for lock-downs and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), an overall increase in testing as a function of time, the under-counting of cases and deaths, and a range of age-specific infection-fatality ratios. We first use our model to describe data from all individual districts of the state of Karnataka, benchmarking our calculations using data from serological surveys. We then extend this approach to aggregated data for Karnataka state. We model the progress of the pandemic across the cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru and Chennai, and then for India as a whole. We estimate that deaths were undercounted by a factor between 2 and 5 across the span of the first wave, converging on 2.2 as a representative multiplier that accounts for the urban-rural gradient. We also estimate an overall under-counting of cases by a factor of between 20 and 25 towards the end of the first wave. Our estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) are in the range 0.05—0.15, broadly consistent with previous estimates but substantially lower than values that have been estimated for other LMIC countries. We find that approximately 35% of India had been infected overall by the end of the first wave, results broadly consistent with those from serosurveys. These results contribute to the understanding of the long-term trajectory of COVID-19 in India.