The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters

Lin, Cheng-Yao; Su, Shih‐Bin; Peng, Cheau-Jane; Chen, Kow-Tong

doi:10.1097/md.0000000000027267

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(161 reference statements)

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“…In this paper, there are 14 studies on the relationship between ambient temperature and incidence of mumps (13 for hot effect and 9 for cold effect), and 11 studies on the relationship between relative humidity and incidence of mumps (9 for high relative humidity and 7 for low relative humidity). Of all studies included, 11 were from Chinese mainland 28 , 30 , 46 , 47 , 49 – 55 , 2 from China Taiwan 48 , 56 , 1 from Japan Fukuoka 29 . The characteristics of the studies included were shown in Table 1 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meta-analysis of the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on the risk of mumps

Wang¹,

Wang

Rao³

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Many studies have shown that the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and mumps has been highlighted. However, these studies showed inconsistent results. Therefore, the goal of our study is to conduct a meta-analysis to clarify this relationship and to quantify the size of these effects as well as the potential factors. Systematic literature researches on PubMed, Embase.com, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane library, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database (CBM) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were performed up to February 7, 2022 for articles analyzing the relationships between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. Eligibility assessment and data extraction were conducted independently by two researchers, and meta-analysis was performed to synthesize these data. We also assessed sources of heterogeneity by study region, regional climate, study population. Finally, a total of 14 studies were screened out from 1154 records and identified to estimate the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. It was found that per 1 °C increase and decrease in the ambient temperature were significantly associated with increased incidence of mumps with RR of 1.0191 (95% CI: 1.0129–1.0252, I2 = 92.0%, Egger’s test P = 0.001, N = 13) for per 1 °C increase and 1.0244 (95% CI: 1.0130–1.0359, I2 = 86.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.077, N = 9) for per 1 °C decrease. As to relative humidity, only high effect of relative humidity was slightly significant (for per 1 unit increase with RR of 1.0088 (95% CI: 1.0027–1.0150), I2 = 72.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.159, N = 9). Subgroup analysis showed that regional climate with temperate areas may have a higher risk of incidence of mumps than areas with subtropical climate in cold effect of ambient temperature and low effect of relative humidity. In addition, meta-regression analysis showed that regional climate may affect the association between incidence of mumps and cold effect of ambient temperature. Our results suggest ambient temperature could affect the incidence of mumps significantly, of which both hot and cold effect of ambient temperature may increase the incidence of mumps. Further studies are still needed to clarify the relationship between the incidence of mumps and ambient temperature outside of east Asia, and many other meteorological factors. These results of ambient temperature are important for establishing preventive measures on mumps, especially in temperate areas. The policy-makers should pay more attention to ambient temperature changes and take protective measures in advance.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meta-analysis of the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on the risk of mumps

Wang¹,

Wang

Rao³

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…Hot-spots identified by LISA analyses were in accordance with the results of scan statistics. The climate of these regions adjacent to rivers or lakes during the mumps epidemic season is relatively warm and humid, which is advantageous for virus transmission [ 32 ]. Besides, it is widely known that the economy of distant suburban regions is less developed than that of the central areas in Wuhan.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal analysis of mumps at township level in Wuhan, China, 2005–2019

et al. 2023

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The resurgence and outbreaks of mumps occurs frequently in many countries worldwide in recent years, even in countries with high vaccination coverage. In this study, a descriptive and spatiotemporal clustering analysis at the township level were conducted to explore the dynamic spatiotemporal aggregation and epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Wuhan. During 2005 and 2019, there were 40685 cases reported in Wuhan, with an average annual morbidity of 28.11 per 100000 populations. The morbidity showed a fluctuating tendency, and peaked in 2010 and 2018. Bimodal seasonality was found, with a large peak between May and July, and a mild peak from November to January in the following year. Male students aged 5-9 years old were the main risk group of mumps infection. Significant global spatial auto-correlation was detected except in 2007, 2009, and 2015.The spatial and temporal scan statistics indicated that the hot spots mainly located at the western and southern areas of Wuhan with variations almost every year. Our findings could assist the public health authorities to develop and improve targeted health strategies, and allocate health resources rationally.

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“…Temperature can directly affect the state of virus proteins and genes and is the most important factor affecting virus survival. In other cities in China, the temperature is one of the most important factors affecting mumps [ 8 , 28 , 29 , 30 ]. A conducted study in Taiwan showed that, when the temperature was 20 °C, the cases of mumps began to increase, and the cases of mumps began to decline at 25 °C [ 10 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between Meteorological Factors and Mumps and Models for Prediction in Chongqing, China

Zhang

Zhong

2022

IJERPH

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(1) Background: To explore whether meteorological factors have an impact on the prevalence of mumps, and to make a short–term prediction of the case number of mumps in Chongqing. (2) Methods: K–means clustering algorithm was used to divide the monthly mumps cases of each year into the high and low case number clusters, and Student t–test was applied for difference analysis. The cross–correlation function (CCF) was used to evaluate the correlation between the meteorological factors and mumps, and an ARIMAX model was constructed by additionally incorporating meteorological factors as exogenous variables in the ARIMA model, and a short–term prediction was conducted for mumps in Chongqing, evaluated by MAE, RMSE. (3) Results: All the meteorological factors were significantly different (p < 0.05), except for the relative humidity between the high and low case number clusters. The CCF and ARIMAX model showed that monthly precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity were associated with mumps, and there were significant lag effects. The ARIMAX model could accurately predict mumps in the short term, and the prediction errors (MAE, RMSE) were lower than those of the ARIMA model. (4) Conclusions: Meteorological factors can affect the occurrence of mumps, and the ARIMAX model can effectively predict the incidence trend of mumps in Chongqing, which can provide an early warning for relevant departments.

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The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters

Cited by 8 publications

References 48 publications

Meta-analysis of the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on the risk of mumps

Meta-analysis of the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on the risk of mumps

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal analysis of mumps at township level in Wuhan, China, 2005–2019

Association between Meteorological Factors and Mumps and Models for Prediction in Chongqing, China

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