The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment

Arnell, Nigel W.; Brown, Sally; Gosling, Simon N.; Gottschalk, Pia; Hinkel, Jochen; Huntingford, Chris; Lloyd-Hughes, Ben; Lowe, Jason; Nicholls, Robert J.; Osborn, Timothy; Osborne, Thomas M.; Rose, Gillian; Smith, Pete; Wheeler, Tim; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1281-2

Cited by 97 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Whilst the UNFCCC target is framed in terms of global-mean temperature, the impacts will be felt heterogeneously across the world (Arnell et al 2016) and one of the key impacts of global warming will be on water resources (Arnell and Gosling 2013). Within this context, we present an assessment of the impact of different levels of global warming on river runoff, focusing on eight major river catchments across the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

et al. 2016

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We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi, upper Niger, Rhine and Tagus. Relative changes in simulated mean annual runoff (MAR) and four indicators of high and low extreme Climatic Change (2017) 141:577-595 DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1773 The original version of this article was revised: The middle initial "J." which had erroneously been added to the name of second author Jamal Zaherpour has now been taken out. Centre for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU), Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany flows are compared between the two ensembles. The ensemble median values of changes in runoff with three different scenarios of global-mean warming (1, 2 and 3°C above preindustrial levels) are generally similar between the two ensembles, although the ensemble spread is often larger for the Glob-HM ensemble. In addition the ensemble spread is normally larger than the difference between the two ensemble medians. Whilst we find compelling evidence for projected runoff changes for the Rhine (decrease), Tagus (decrease) and Lena (increase) with global warming, the sign and magnitude of change for the other catchments is unclear. Our model results highlight that for these three catchments in particular, global climate change mitigation, which limits global-mean temperature rise to below 2°C above preindustrial levels, could avoid some of the hydrological hazards that could be seen with higher magnitudes of global warming.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

et al. 2016

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“…At the same time, evaluations indicate major increases in people with impeded access to fresh water and also in those exposed to floods (e.g., Arnell et al 2016). For those confronting these issues, a concern is whether we know enough to understand, predict, and address how land cover influences water availability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle

Sheil

2018

For. Ecosyst.

140

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Theory and evidence indicate that trees and other vegetation influence the atmospheric water-cycle in various ways. These influences are more important, more complex, and more poorly characterised than is widely realised. While there is little doubt that changes in tree cover will impact the water-cycle, the wider consequences remain difficult to predict as the underlying relationships and processes remain poorly characterised. Nonetheless, as forests are vulnerable to human activities, these linked aspects of the water-cycle are also at risk and the potential consequences of large scale forest loss are severe. Here, for non-specialist readers, I review our knowledge of the links between vegetation-cover and climate with a focus on forests and rain (precipitation). I highlight advances, uncertainties and research opportunities. There are significant shortcomings in our understanding of the atmospheric hydrological cycle and of its representation in climate models. A better understanding of the role of vegetation and tree-cover will reduce some of these shortcomings. I outline and illustrate various research themes where these advances may be found. These themes include the biology of evaporation, aerosols and atmospheric motion, as well as the processes that determine monsoons and diurnal precipitation cycles. A novel theory-the 'biotic pump'-suggests that evaporation and condensation can exert a major influence over atmospheric dynamics. This theory explains how high rainfall can be maintained within those continental land-masses that are sufficiently forested. Feedbacks within many of these processes can result in non-linear behaviours and the potential for dramatic changes as a result of forest loss (or gain): for example, switching from a wet to a dry local climate (or visa-versa). Much remains unknown and multiple research disciplines are needed to address this: forest scientists and other biologists have a major role to play. New ideas, methods and data offer opportunities to improve understanding. Expect surprises.

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“…Therefore, estimates of the likely impacts of climate change on crop production at a global scale were historically made by scaling-up the output of site studies (Rosenzweig and Parry 1994) or by aggregating individual studies on the basis of geography (IPCC 2007). However more recent studies including Osborne et al (2013), Rosenzweig et al (2013) and Arnell et al (2014) have relied on smaller-scale studies. Such models have been used to investigate the impact of future temperatures on global or regional crop yield.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper introduces a methodology for estimating global maize and soybean yield for different levels of global temperature increases. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) is a process-based crop model, developed for large-scale global studies (Challinor et al 2004) and has previously been used to simulate soybean (Osborne et al, 2013, Arnell et al 2014) and maize (Greatrex 2012, Watson et al 2014. A pattern-scaling approach is described which provides climate scenarios consistent with prescribed increases in global temperature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of progressive global warming on the global-scale yield of maize and soybean

Rose

Osborne²,

Greatrex

et al. 2016

Climatic Change

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Global surface temperature is projected to warm over the coming decades, with regional differences expected in temperature change, rainfall and the frequency of extreme events. Temperature is a major determinant of crop growth and development, affecting planting date, growing season length and yield. We investigated the effects of increments of mean global temperature warming from 0.5°C to 4°C on soybean and maize development and yield, both globally and for the main producing countries, and simulated adaptation through changing planting date and variety. Increasing temperature resulted in reduced growing season lengths and ultimately reduced yields for both crops. The global yield for maize decreased as temperature increased, although the severity of the decrease was dependent on geographic region. Small temperature increases of 0.5°C had no effect on soybean yield, although yield decreased as temperature increased. These negative effects, however, were partly compensated for by the implementation of adaptation strategies including planting earlier in the season and changing variety. The degree of compensation was dependent on geographical area and crop, with maize adaptation delaying the negative effects of temperature on yield, compared to soybean adaptation which increased yield in China, India and Korea DPR as well as delaying the effects in the remaining countries. The results of this paper indicate the degree to which farmer-controlled adaptation strategies can alleviate the negative impacts of increasing temperature on two major crop species.

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The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment

Cited by 97 publications

References 21 publications

A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle

Impact of progressive global warming on the global-scale yield of maize and soybean

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