Impact of progressive global warming on the global-scale yield of maize and soybean

Abstract

Global surface temperature is projected to warm over the coming decades, with regional differences expected in temperature change, rainfall and the frequency of extreme events. Temperature is a major determinant of crop growth and development, affecting planting date, growing season length and yield. We investigated the effects of increments of mean global temperature warming from 0.5°C to 4°C on soybean and maize development and yield, both globally and for the main producing countries, and simulated adaptation through changing planting date and variety. Increasing temperature resulted in reduced growing season lengths and ultimately reduced yields for both crops. The global yield for maize decreased as temperature increased, although the severity of the decrease was dependent on geographic region. Small temperature increases of 0.5°C had no effect on soybean yield, although yield decreased as temperature increased. These negative effects, however, were partly compensated for by the implementation of adaptation strategies including planting earlier in the season and changing variety. The degree of compensation was dependent on geographical area and crop, with maize adaptation delaying the negative effects of temperature on yield, compared to soybean adaptation which increased yield in China, India and Korea DPR as well as delaying the effects in the remaining countries. The results of this paper indicate the degree to which farmer-controlled adaptation strategies can alleviate the negative impacts of increasing temperature on two major crop species.

How much does climate change add to the challenge of feeding the planet this century?

“…Similarly, for maize, our metaanalysis shows an increase from 9% losses in the 2020s to 20% in the 2080s without adaptation. Values higher than these are also reported for different crops in individual countries and in a few global studies, which had different baselines and modelling approach [22][23][24]. Low latitudes generally show higher yield losses except for wheat, which shows only a small reduction until the 2050s.…”

Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes

“…The negative effects of climate change on crop production are likely to be even more severe in the future as global temperatures are predicted to increase from 2.6 to 4°C before the end of this century (IPCC, ; Rogelj et al., ). Current estimates indicate that an increase of 1°C can cause a 10%–20% decrease in the global production of maize (Challinor et al., ; Lobell et al., ; Rose, Osborne, Greatrex, & Wheeler, ); likewise, an increase of 1.6–3°C could reduce global potato yields by 18%–32% (Hijmans, ). Decreases in the production of these and other staple crops represent a major challenge to food security, especially in the face of rapid population growth (Alexandratos & Bruinsma, ).…”

“…Current estimates indicate that an increase of 1°C can cause a 10%-20% decrease in the global production of maize (Challinor et al, 2014;Lobell et al, 2011;Rose, Osborne, Greatrex, & Wheeler, 2016); likewise, an increase of 1.6-3°C could reduce global potato yields by 18%-32% (Hijmans, 2003). Decreases in the production of these and other staple crops represent a major challenge to food security, especially in the face of rapid population growth (Alexandratos & Bruinsma, 2012).…”

“…As already evident in some parts of the world, climate change and the consequent changes in the suitability of areas for certain crops and/ or cultivation systems (Machovina & Feeley 2013) can force farmers to change the timing of cultivation (Hijmans, 2003;Howden et al, 2007;Rose et al, 2016), or the type of crop grown (Meng et al, 2014). Alternatively, farmers may maintain their current crops and cultivations system but change locations (e.g., to higher, cooler elevations; Skarbø & VanderMolen, 2016).…”

Evaluating the Contribution of Soybean Rust- Resistant Cultivars to Soybean Production and the Soybean Market in Brazil: A Supply and Demand Model Analysis

“…At the same time, climate change can also affect the yield of soybean. However, different models predicting the effect of climate change on soybean yield have contradicting results [14], with some predicting an increase [15], while others a decrease in yield [16][17][18][19]. Thus, the effect of climate change on soybean yield is still ambiguous and there are limited studies on this topic.…”