The Impact of the Structure of the Economy on the Evolution of Road Freight Transport: A Macro Analysis from an Input-output Approach

Alises, Ana; Vassallo, José Manuel

doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2016.05.404

Cited by 20 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…There are also developments within I-O modelling to enable the incorporation of a wide array of spatial and sectoral data in order to reduce uncertainty and improve applications, so-called hybrid I-O models (Lahr, 2016). Müller et al (2015) (for Germany) and Alises and Vassallo (2016) (for Spain and the UK) confirmed the use of I-O models (or subsets thereof) to understand the link between economic activity and freight transport.…”

Section: National Freight Demand Modelling: Rationale and Historical Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 62%

National freight demand modelling: a tool for macrologistics management

Havenga

Simpson

2018

IJLM

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the results of South Africa’s national freight demand model and related logistics cost models, and to illustrate the application of the modelling outputs to inform macrologistics policy. Design/methodology/approach Spatially and sectorally disaggregated supply and demand data are developed using the input-output (I-O) model of the economy as a platform, augmented by actual data. Supply and demand interaction is translated into freight flows via a gravity model. The logistics costs model is a bottom-up aggregation of logistics-related costs for these freight flows. Findings South Africa’s logistics costs are higher than in developed countries. Road freight volumes constitute 80 per cent of long-distance corridor freight, while road transport contributes more than 80 per cent to the country’s transport costs. These challenges raise concerns regarding the competitiveness of international trade, as well as the impact of transport externalities. The case studies highlight that domestic logistics costs are the biggest cost contributor to international trade logistics costs and can be reduced through inter alia modal shift. Modal shift can be induced through the internalisation of freight externality costs. Results show that externality cost internalisation can eradicate the societal cost of freight transport in South Africa without increasing macroeconomic freight costs. Research limitations/implications Systematic spatially disaggregated commodity-level data are limited. There is however a wealth of supply, demand and freight flow information collected by the public and private sector. Initiatives to create an appreciation of the intrinsic value of such information and to leverage data sources will improve freight demand modelling in emerging economies. Originality/value A spatially and sectorally disaggregated national freight demand model, and related logistics costs models, utilising actual and modelled data, balanced via the national I-O model, provides opportunities for increased accuracy of outputs and diverse application possibilities.

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Section: National Freight Demand Modelling: Rationale and Historical Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 62%

National freight demand modelling: a tool for macrologistics management

Havenga

Simpson

2018

IJLM

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“…The final aim of exploring this relationship was getting a signal for early detection of extremely "hot" or "cold" development problems in transport, which could help with a better understanding of macroeconomic trends in the country, as well as providing the basis for risk warning of freight transportation industry. That the correlation between freight transport and GDP exists is also shown in paper [17]. Nevertheless, this paper claimed that the real cause-effect relationship between these two variables is not yet fully known.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 70%

Correlation Between Freight Transport Industry and Economic Growth – Panel Analysis of CEE Countries

Vilke

Mance

Debelić

et al. 2021

PROMET

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The paper tests for statistical association between employment and value added of freight transport industry and its component activities against overall economy in a ten-year panel ranging from 2008 to 2017 of the thirteen newest European Union member countries. In this paper, the nature of correlation between economic growth as the independent variable and freight transport industry as a dependent variable is examined. To achieve stationarity, and to lose autocorrelation and the idiosyncratic effects, the variables are first differenced. The results of the “Granger causality” tests show the null hypothesis of no-causation may be rejected for most conjectures with high F-Statistics as well as high statistical significance. The results of the Panel EGLS cross-section fixed effects do not reject the results gained by the Granger test, and the same may be said for the Panel Generalised Method of Moments First Differences test. The result of the Arellano-Bond test shows no serial correlation in the residuals. It has been concluded that changes in overall economy (value added and employment) have a significant and measurably strong impact on freight transportation and warehousing sector. This conclusion is useful in assessing future impacts on freight transport industry, especially as a consequence of contingent events.

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“…Results of the conducted analysis showed that air transport is crucial for Greece economy and that there is a significant link between tourism and air transport. In order to explain the development of the volume of road freight transport, Alises and Vassallo (2016) applied extended IO model and data of the transport at the macro level in Spain and the UK. Based on the developed model authors concluded that in road freight transport volumes explaining significant role have economic restructuring processes including technological, logistic and modal factors.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic effects of transport sectors on Croatian economy: an input–output approach

Keček

Brlek

Buntak

2021

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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Multiplier effects play a major role in determining importance of a sector of interest to the national economy. In order to determine the significance of Croatian transport sectors, in this paper input-output analysis was applied. A comparative analysis of type I and type II output, gross value added and employment multipliers based on input-output tables for Croatian economy for the year 2010 and 2015 was performed. Type I multipliers were calculated based on the open IO model. Closed IO model was used in type II multipliers determination. Results indicate that sector code H49-Land transport services and transport services via pipelines and sector code H50-Water transport services in the year 2015 recorded lower type I and type II output, gross value added and employment multipliers compared to the year 2010. For sector code H51-Air transport services, significant growth in terms of all three economic indicators was detected, especially when interest is focused on type I and type II employment multipliers. Results presented in this paper could be valuable for academia and general public because they reflect multipliers estimation of transport sectors in Republic of Croatia for the first time based on sound macroeconomic analysis tool.

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The Impact of the Structure of the Economy on the Evolution of Road Freight Transport: A Macro Analysis from an Input-output Approach

Cited by 20 publications

References 11 publications

National freight demand modelling: a tool for macrologistics management

National freight demand modelling: a tool for macrologistics management

Correlation Between Freight Transport Industry and Economic Growth – Panel Analysis of CEE Countries

Economic effects of transport sectors on Croatian economy: an input–output approach

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