The Impact of the July 2007 Heat Wave on Daily Mortality in Belgrade, Serbia

Abstract

Objective: Mortality has been shown to increase with heat waves. Serbia experienced the hottest heat wave in July 2007. In this study, we examined patterns of non-traumatic excess mortality in Belgrade during this event. Methods: The numbers of deaths observed during the 9-day heat wave were compared to those expected on the basis of mortality rates reported for the previous eight years and two following years. Excess mortality was analyzed by age, gender and cause of death. Results: There was a total of 167 excess deaths (38%) between 16 and 24 July. People aged 75 years and older accounted for 151 (90%) of all excess deaths. An increase of mortality among elderly was 76% in comparison to the baseline mortality. Excess female mortality was over two times higher than excess male mortality (54% : 23%). The biggest increase in mortality was from diabetes mellitus (286%), chronic kidney disease (200%), respiratory system diseases (73%), and nervous system diseases (67%). Cardiovascular and malignant neoplasms mortality accounted for the highest absolute numbers of excess deaths (77 and 49, respectively). There was no decrease in mortality in the 60-day period after the heat wave. Conclusions: There are several causes of an increase in heat-related mortality. The most vulnerable population group is the elderly females.

The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

“…A particularly extreme heat spell occurred in the second half of July 2007. During this episode, mortality increased by 38% in Belgrade (Bogdanović et al, 2013) and by 32.9% in Central Hungary (Páldy and Bobvos, 2010), and these values are much higher than in Slovakia (Tab. 1).…”

“…No significant deficit in mortality, corresponding to mortality displacement, was recorded immediately after the July heat period in Moldova (Corobov et al, 2013), Serbia (Bogdanović et al, 2013), or in Hungary (Páldy and Bobvos, 2010). The authors of the cited Moldavian study, however, noticed markedly negative excess mortality in September 2007 and they stated that this was a reduction related to post-heat mortality displacement.…”

“…In recently published studies, excess mortality has also been evaluated separately during other extreme summer heat waves in various parts of Europe: for example in 2006, it was mainly in Western Europe (Fouillet et al, 2008;Monteiro et al, 2013;Knobová et al, 2014); in 2007, mainly in Central and Southeastern Europe (Overcenco, 2010;Páldy and Bobvos, 2010;Opopol et al, 2012;Bogdanović et al, 2013;Corobov et al, 2013;Stanojević et al, 2014); and in Central Europe, most recently in 2011 and 2012 (Páldy and Bobvos, 2012).…”

“…Several contributions have focused on the population of the Czech Republic (e.g. Kyselý, 2004;Kyselý and Huth, 2004;Kyselý and Kříž, 2008;Kyselý and Plavcová, 2012;Knobová et al, 2014), as well as Austria (Hutter et al, 2007; Muthers et al, 2010a,b;Matzarakis et al, 2011), Switzerland (Grize et al, 2005), Poland (Kuchcik and Degórski, 2009), Hungary (Páldy et al, 2005; Bobvos, 2010, 2012), Croatia (Zaninović and Matzarakis, 2014), Serbia (Bogdanović et al, 2013; Stanovejić et al, 2014), and Moldova (Overcenco, 2010;Opopol et al, 2012;Corobov et al, 2013). In several cases, and this is also valid in global terms, most of the studies were aimed specifically at populations of larger cities or metropolitan areas where a higher risk of death can be generally expected due to a higher sensitivity of the population as a consequence of climate (urban heat island, higher air pollution, etc.)…”

Impact of climate conditions on hospital admissions for subcategories of cardiovascular diseases

“…A huge amount of evidence has pointed to the relationship between daily variations in meteorological parameters and mortality [2]. The research conducted in Serbia has also shown heat-related mortality, especially among elderly females and Roma population [3,4]. On the other hand, the study which investigated the short-term effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in the elderly in Nis, Serbia, did not show the association with the effects of the time trend, seasonal variations, a day of the week, temperature, relative humidity and barometric pressure [5].…”