The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

Výberči, Dalibor; Švec, Marek; Faško, P.; Savinová, Henrieta; Trizna, Milan; Mičietová, Eva

doi:10.1515/mgr-2015-0018

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The importance of the total heat load of a heat wave (considered as a function of its absolute temperature anomaly, temperature change, and duration [ 34 , 36 ]) in the final effect on heat-related mortality was demonstrated in this study by the strong correlation between the cumulative relative mortality deviation (∑RMD) and ∑EHF during a heat wave. The difference between the low total heat load during the 2003 heat wave in Central Europe demonstrated here as well as in other studies [ 31 , 42 , 45 , 77 ] and, on the other hand, its strong intensity in Western Europe [ 50 , 52 ], contributed significantly to the spatial differences in the mortality response across Europe [ 44 ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

“…This has been documented in North America [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 ], Europe [ 23 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 ], as well as Asia and Australia [ 23 , 29 , 30 ]. The magnitude and significance of heat-related mortality change may differ, however, according to region, length of the examined period, number and timing of heat waves, and the methodology used [ 23 , 26 , 31 , 32 , 33 ]. Although many studies have assessed temporal changes in relative risk of increased mortality per unit temperature rise [ 21 , 24 ], much less has been done to compare effects of heat events on mortality with respect to their meteorological and spatial-temporal characteristics [ 34 , 35 , 36 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves

Urban

Hanzlíková

Kyselý

et al. 2017

IJERPH

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Abstract:This study aimed to assess the impacts of heat waves during the summer of 2015 on mortality in the Czech Republic and to compare them with those of heat waves back to the previous record-breaking summer of 1994. We analyzed daily natural-cause mortality across the country's entire population. A mortality baseline was determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends, seasonal and weekly cycles, and identified heat waves. Mortality deviations from the baseline were calculated to quantify excess mortality during heat waves, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with mean daily temperature higher than the 95th percentile of annual distribution. The summer of 2015 was record-breaking in the total duration of heat waves as well as their total heat load. Consequently, the impact of the major heat wave in 2015 on the increase in excess mortality relative to the baseline was greater than during the previous record-breaking heat wave in 1994 (265% vs. 240%). Excess mortality was comparable among the younger age group (0-64 years) and the elderly (65+ years) in the 1994 major heat wave while it was significantly larger among the elderly in 2015. The results suggest that the total heat load of a heat wave needs to be considered when assessing its impact on mortality, as the cumulative excess heat factor explains the magnitude of excess mortality during a heat wave better than other characteristics such as duration or average daily mean temperature during the heat wave. Comparison of the mortality impacts of the 2015 and 1994 major heat waves suggests that the recently reported decline in overall heat-related mortality in Central Europe has abated and simple extrapolation of the trend would lead to biased conclusions even for the near future. Further research is needed toward understanding the additional mitigation measures required to prevent heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic and elsewhere.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves

Urban

Hanzlíková

Kyselý

et al. 2017

IJERPH

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“…Regardless the applied definition, a similar spatial pattern of heat waves frequency in Central Europe was worked out, that is, the lowest number of events in seaside stations, and the highest in West Poland and Central‐East Germany; some differences in absolute values resulted from the adopted definitions of hot days. An increase in the number of heat waves was indicated in numerous studies, among others from Poland (Tomczyk, ; Sulikowska et al, ; Wibig ), Germany (Tomczyk and Sulikowska, ), Czech Republic (Kyselý, ), Slovakia (Výberči et al, ) and Ukraine (Shevchenko et al, ). The most frequent were the shortest heat waves, that is, those lasting for 3 days.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 95%

Heat waves in Central Europe and tropospheric anomalies of temperature and geopotential heights

Tomczyk

Bednorz

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The aim of the article was to provide a detailed analysis of pressure conditions, employing the anomalies of geopotential heights, during the occurrence of heat waves in Central Europe, but also in the days preceding and following their occurrence. The study uses data from 1966 to 2015 from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute, Deutscher Wetterdienst and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). A heat wave was defined as a sequence of at least 3 days with a maximum daily air temperature of >30°C. The study showed an increase in the number of hot days, which was statistically significant in the majority of the area. In the analysed years, an increasing number of heat waves were recorded, and this occurrence was associated with high pressure systems. Anticyclonic blocking in the summer inhibits the zonal flow of air masses and intensifies meridional flow, which in Central Europe in the summer means the presence of polar continental and tropical air masses. During heat waves, there were positive anomalies of isobaric surface heights over the study area with a maximum in the upper troposphere. On average, anomalies at the 300 hPa pressure level began to form over the Atlantic Ocean. Determining atmospheric preconditions of persisting blocking events in summer resulting in heat waves may be helpful in predicting thereof.

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“…In Poland and in the Czech Republic, for example, heatwaves are defined as at least 3 consecutive days with a maximum air temperature greater than 30°C (Kyselý, 2004;Kuchcik, 2006a). In Slovakia and Ukraine there is no official heatwave definition, so percentiles (Výberči et al, 2015) or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) definition (a period of more than 5 consecutive days with daily maximum air temperature ≥5 degC above the mean daily maximum for the 1961-1990 climate normal period) are used (Shevchenko et al, 2014). For this paper, a heatwave is defined using the most common definition (3 consecutive days with maximum air temperature exceeding 30°C), while a MHW is defined as an event with at least 6 consecutive days on which the maximum air temperature exceeds 30°C (with no more than 1 day falling below the 30°C threshold between the onset and end of the event).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

Abstract: The impacts of summer heat events on the mortality of the Slovak population, both in total and for selected population sub-groups,

Cited by 14 publications

References 59 publications

Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves

Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves

Heat waves in Central Europe and tropospheric anomalies of temperature and geopotential heights

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