The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Dynamics of Financial Instruments in the World Trade

Abstract

The aim of the research was to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of financial instruments in international trade. The study examined the dynamics of price changes and determined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the price of futures contracts on the global market. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the futures volatility dynamics in the global financial market was explored for major commodity groups. The least-squares method was used as the main regression testing tool, while dynamics of the indicators was assessed through graphical and trends methods. The study involves the World Bank’s data for 2000-2021. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the coal, natural gas, metals, beverage and food futures price on the global financial market was established and proved to be statistically significant. It was found that the pandemic had a statistically significant impact on the volatility of futures for coal, natural gas and tin on the global financial market. The futures price is being affected by the COVID-19 pandemic because of the collapse of global supply chains and countries’ protectionist measures. In aggregate, this produces imbalances in the distribution of goods in the world and impedes their flow. The market is consequently responding to the restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic by raising prices. The results obtained open up new lines for research, in particular the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the supply and demand structure on the world commodity markets.