The Impact of Solar Activity on Forecasting the Upper Atmosphere via Assimilation of Electron Density Data

Kodikara, Timothy; Zhang, Kefei; Pedatella, Nicholas; Borries, Claudia

doi:10.1029/2020sw002660

Cited by 13 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…We also compared TIE-GCM and TIE-GCM-I with RO measurements, which showed that the vertical profiles of the forecasts can be positively improved on average. Previous studies, dealing with the data assimilation of upper atmosphere, already demonstrated the success EnKF-based data assimilation while using TIE-GCM as base model 41 , 79 , 80 . In these studies, however, electron density was used as main observation to tune the model’s skills for estimating ionosphere related parameters.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting global and multi-level thermospheric neutral density and ionospheric electron content by tuning models against satellite-based accelerometer measurements

Forootan

Kosary

Farzaneh

et al. 2022

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Global estimation of thermospheric neutral density (TND) on various altitudes is important for geodetic and space weather applications. This is typically provided by models, however, the quality of these models is limited due to their imperfect structure and the sensitivity of their parameters to the calibration period. Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based calibration and data assimilation (C/DA) technique that updates the model’s states and simultaneously calibrates its key parameters. Its application is demonstrated using the TND estimates from on-board accelerometer measurements, e.g., those of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission (at $$\sim 410$$ ∼ 410 km altitude), as observation, and the frequently used empirical model NRLMSISE-00. The C/DA is applied here to re-calibrate the model parameters including those controlling the influence of solar radiation and geomagnetic activity as well as those related to the calculation of exospheric temperature. The resulting model, called here ‘C/DA-NRLMSISE-00’, is then used to now-cast TNDs and individual neutral mass compositions for 3 h, where the model with calibrated parameters is run again during the assimilation period. C/DA-NRLMSISE-00 is also used to forecast the next 21 h, where no new observations are introduced. These forecasts are unique because they are available globally and on various altitudes (300–600 km). To introduce the impact of the thermosphere on estimating ionospheric parameters, the coupled physics-based model TIE-GCM is run by replacing the O2, O1, He and neutral temperature estimates of the C/DA-NRLMSISE-00. Then, the non-assimilated outputs of electron density (Ne) and total electron content (TEC) are validated against independent measurements. Assessing the forecasts of TNDs with those along the Swarm-A ($$\sim 467$$ ∼ 467 km), -B ($$\sim 521$$ ∼ 521 km), and -C ($$\sim 467$$ ∼ 467 km) orbits shows that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is considerably reduced by 51, 57 and 54%, respectively. We find improvement of 30.92% for forecasting Ne and 26.48% for TEC compared to the radio occulation and global ionosphere maps (GIM), respectively. The presented C/DA approach is recommended for the short-term global multi-level thermosphere and enhanced ionosphere forecasting applications.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting global and multi-level thermospheric neutral density and ionospheric electron content by tuning models against satellite-based accelerometer measurements

Forootan

Kosary

Farzaneh

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

Self Cite

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“…We chose NEDM (briefly described in Jakowski & Hoque, 2019) as a representative empirical model. The TIE‐GCM was selected for this comparison since it is a well‐established physics‐based model (Hsu et al., 2021; Kodikara et al., 2021; Qian et al., 2014). TIE‐GCM uses a finite differencing technique to discretize the numerical solutions for the conservation of mass, energy, and momentum to model the coupled ionosphere‐thermosphere (Qian et al., 2014; Richmond et al., 1992).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In future work, it may be beneficial to investigate the performance and efficiency of the global tomography in comparison to regional reconstructions using dense GNSS networks, such as the regional methods applied over Japan (Saito et al., 2017). Data assimilation approaches applied on numerical models (e.g., Hsu et al., 2021; Kodikara et al., 2021) would also be an interesting option for comparison with the global‐scale tomography results. Similarly, the high accuracy tomography outputs could be used to drive the numerical models in forecasting applications.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides tomography, data assimilation with numerical models can also be used to estimate the global electron density (e.g., Kodikara et al, 2021) but tomography is different from data assimilation techniques since tomography is not constrained by the internal physics of the model. Besides TOMION, She et al (2017) developed a global tomography with a parameterized ionospheric electron density model based on eigenmode and leastsquare regression.…”

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Global‐Scale Ionospheric Tomography During the March 17, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

et al. 2021

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Measuring the electron density in the ionosphere is an important step to improve our understanding of the solar-terrestrial environment impact on communication, surveillance, and navigation systems. Several methods can be applied to estimate the three-dimensional (3D) electron density in the ionosphere (Bust & Mitchell, 2008). In this context, the computerized ionospheric tomography (CIT) gained attention in the last three decades since it provides accurate observations of the ionospheric electron density over large areas (Austen et al., 1988;Norberg et al., 2018). The main products are 3D spatial fields of the electron density, which evolve with time in a series of snapshots. Over the last 20 years, several achievements have been obtained by CIT techniques. It has been demonstrated that these images can be used to describe the overall ionospheric plasma structure and its temporal evolution in the atmosphere. They have been successfully used to represent important ionospheric dynamics, such as traveling ionospheric disturbances (Bolmgren et al., 2020;Chen et al., 2016), geomagnetic storm signatures

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“…There is a long‐history of lower atmosphere data assimilation (Gelaro et al., 2017; Hersbach et al., 2020; Rienecker et al., 2011), but the whole atmosphere system data assimilation is relatively new. There have been significant developments in the assimilation of thermosphere‐ionosphere observations such as, neutral density (Matsuo et al., 2013; Mehta et al., 2018; M. V. Codrescu et al., 2004; Ren & Lei, 2020; S. M. Codrescu et al., 2018; Sutton, 2018), thermospheric temperature (Laskar, Pedatella, et al., 2021), thermospheric airglow radiance (Cantrall et al., 2019), and electron content (Aa et al., 2016; Bust et al., 2004; Bust & Immel, 2020; Chen et al., 2016; Datta‐Barua et al., 2013; Forsythe et al., 2021; He et al., 2020; Kodikara et al., 2021; Lee et al., 2012; Lin et al., 2015; Matsuo et al., 2013; Pedatella et al., 2020; Song et al., 2021). While these results were promising and showed that the assimilation of TI observations improves the model states, most were limited to using upper atmosphere only models or used limited thermospheric datasets from low‐earth‐orbit satellites or ionospheric only measurements or observing system simulation experiments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving the Thermosphere Ionosphere in a Whole Atmosphere Model by Assimilating GOLD Disk Temperatures

et al. 2022

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Global‐Scale Observations of Limb and Disk (GOLD) disk measurements of far ultraviolet molecular nitrogen band emissions are used to retrieve column integrated disk temperatures (Tdisk), which are representative of the lower‐and‐middle thermosphere. The present work develops a new approach to assimilate the Tdisk in the whole atmosphere community climate model with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension using the data assimilation research testbed ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Nine days of data, 1–9 November 2018, are assimilated. Analysis state variables such as thermospheric effective temperature (Teff, airglow layer integrated temperature), ratio of atomic oxygen to molecular nitrogen column densities (O/N2), and column electron content are compared with a control simulation that is only constrained up to ∼50 km. It is observed that assimilation of the GOLD Tdisk improves the analysis states when compared with the control simulation. The analysis and model states, particularly, Teff, O/N2, and electron column density (ECD) are compared with their measurement counterparts for a validation of the assimilation. Teff and O/N2 are compared with GOLD Tdisk and O/N2. While, the ECD is compared with ground based total electron content measurements from global navigational satellite system receivers. Root mean square error (RMSE) improvements in Teff and O/N2 are about 10.8% and 22.6%, respectively. The RMSE improvement in analyses ECD is about 10% compared to the control simulation.

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The Impact of Solar Activity on Forecasting the Upper Atmosphere via Assimilation of Electron Density Data

Cited by 13 publications

References 41 publications

Forecasting global and multi-level thermospheric neutral density and ionospheric electron content by tuning models against satellite-based accelerometer measurements

Forecasting global and multi-level thermospheric neutral density and ionospheric electron content by tuning models against satellite-based accelerometer measurements

Global‐Scale Ionospheric Tomography During the March 17, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

Improving the Thermosphere Ionosphere in a Whole Atmosphere Model by Assimilating GOLD Disk Temperatures

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