The impact of sea‐level rise on<scp>S</scp>nowy<scp>P</scp>lovers in<scp>F</scp>lorida: integrating geomorphological, habitat, and metapopulation models

Aiello‐Lammens, Matthew E.; Chu-Agor, M. L.; Convertino, Matteo; Fischer, Richard A.; Linkov, Igor; Akçakaya, H. Reşi̇t

doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02497.x

Cited by 68 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…This suggests that habitat loss could be underestimated without consideration of dynamic landform responses and extensive dike presence (Seavey et al, 2011). Second, although the resistance of shorebird population to low SLR is consistent with recent studies (Aiello-Lammens et al, 2011;Galbraith et al, 2002;Traill et al, 2011), our results indicate a need to better address long-term conservation planning to mitigate the threats posed by high SLR and associated extreme events. Third, our results show that the shift of the salinity regime under SLR may trigger important improvements in habitat quality.…”

Section: Conservation Implicationssupporting

confidence: 80%

“…6a). The threshold of 25 females was selected based on the reported range of the minimum viable population of avian species from recent literature (Aiello-Lammens et al, 2011;Huang, 2011;Leech et al, 2008). To estimate population viability, we generated continuous curves of the above indices by interpolating model results over the range of SLR values from 0 to 1.9 m. Results show that SLR causes a decrease in population viability and this decrease accelerates over the medium-to-high range of rise values.…”

Section: Impact Of Sea Level Rise On Bird Population and Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These factors represented a variety of essential characteristics that allow tidal marshes to serve as critical foraging and nesting habitat for clapper rail. Some of these factors were widely used, to evaluate habitat suitability for shorebirds (Convertino et al, 2012a,d;Aiello-Lammens et al, 2011;Sims et al, 2013;Takekawa et al, 2011;Veloz et al, 2011;Woodrey et al, 2012).…”

Section: Habitat Suitability Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These works employ simplified single-population models Nur and Sydeman, 1999) and complicated metapopulation simulation of http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.02.016 0006-3207/Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. multiple populations across complex landscapes (Aiello-Lammens et al, 2011;Convertino et al, 2013;Traill et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coupled impacts of sea-level rise and tidal marsh restoration on endangered California clapper rail

Zhang

Gorelick

2014

Biological Conservation

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Section: Conservation Implicationssupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Impact Of Sea Level Rise On Bird Population and Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Habitat Suitability Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coupled impacts of sea-level rise and tidal marsh restoration on endangered California clapper rail

Zhang

Gorelick

2014

Biological Conservation

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“…Some of these effects include nest loss; mortality, primarily of nestlings; and abandonment of historical sites or occupation of new areas in response to storm-induced habitat changes (Michener et al 1997). Thus, recurrent, abiotic factors such as storms and flooding must be explicitly integrated into conservation strategies (e.g., Aiello-Lammens et al 2011). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Piping Plover response to coastal storms occurring during the nonbreeding season

Bourque¹,

Villard²,

Mazerolle³

et al. 2015

ACE

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However, to our knowledge, no test of this pattern has been conducted over a regional scale. We hypothesized that Piping Plover abundance would increase after large coastal storms occurring during the nonbreeding season. However, we expected a delay in the colonization of newly created habitat owing to low-density populations, combined with high site fidelity of adults and high variability in survival rate of subadults. We tested this hypothesis using a 27-year (1986-2012) data set of Piping Plover abundance and productivity (nesting pairs and fledged young) collected at five sites in eastern New Brunswick. We identified 11 major storms that could potentially have modified Piping Plover habitat over the study period. The number of fledged young increased three years after a major storm, but the relationship was much weaker for the number of nesting pairs. These findings are consistent with the hypothesized increase in suitable habitat after coastal storms. Including storm occurrence with other factors influencing habitat quality will enhance Piping Plover conservation strategies. Réponse du Pluvier siffleur aux tempêtes côtières survenant en dehors de la saison de reproductionRÉSUMÉ. L'augmentation de la fréquence et de l'intensité des tempêtes côtières prévue dans la plupart des scénarios de changements climatiques modifiera vraisemblablement la configuration des plages et les milieux associés de façon substantielle. L'objectif de la présente étude était d'analyser l'impact des tempêtes côtières sur une population nicheuse du Pluvier siffleur (Charadrius melodus melodus), espèce en voie de disparition, dans le sud-est du Nouveau-Brunswick, au Canada. Des recherches antérieures ont montré que le nombre de Pluviers siffleurs nicheurs pourrait augmenter à la suite de tempêtes susceptibles de créer de nouveaux milieux de nidification sur certaines plages. Toutefois, selon nos connaissances, il n'y a eu aucun test de cette tendance à l'échelle régionale. Nous avons testé l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'abondance de ce pluvier augmenterait à la suite de tempêtes côtières importantes survenant en dehors de la saison de reproduction. Cependant, nous nous attendions à un décalage dans la colonisation des nouveaux milieux créés en raison de la faible densité des populations, combinée à la grande fidélité au site des adultes et au taux de survie très variable observé chez les jeunes. Nous avons analysé un jeu de données de 27 années (1986-2012) comprenant l'abondance et la productivité (couples nicheurs et jeunes aptes au vol) du Pluvier siffleur, récoltées à cinq sites dans le sud-est du Nouveau-Brunswick. Nous avons identifié onze tempêtes nous paraissant suffisamment importantes pour modifier l'habitat du Pluvier siffleur au cours de la période de l'étude. Le nombre de jeunes ayant pris leur envol a augmenté 3 ans après une tempête importante, mais la relation avec le nombre de couples nicheurs était beaucoup plus faible. Ces résultats concordent avec l'augmentation supposée du nombre de milieux de nidification propices c...

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The conservation value of elevation data accuracy and model sophistication in reserve design under sea‐level rise

Zhu

Hoctor

Volk

et al. 2015

Ecology and Evolution

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Many studies have explored the value of using more sophisticated coastal impact models and higher resolution elevation data in sea‐level rise (SLR) adaptation planning. However, we know little about to what extent the improved models and data could actually lead to better conservation outcomes under SLR. This is important to know because high‐resolution data are likely to not be available in some data‐poor coastal areas in the world and running more complicated coastal impact models is relatively time‐consuming, expensive, and requires assistance by qualified experts and technicians. We address this research question in the context of identifying conservation priorities in response to SLR. Specifically, we investigated the conservation value of using more accurate light detection and ranging (Lidar)‐based digital elevation data and process‐based coastal land‐cover change models (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, SLAMM) to identify conservation priorities versus simple “bathtub” models based on the relatively coarse National Elevation Dataset (NED) in a coastal region of northeast Florida. We compared conservation outcomes identified by reserve design software (Zonation) using three different model dataset combinations (Bathtub–NED, Bathtub–Lidar, and SLAMM–Lidar). The comparisons show that the conservation priorities are significantly different with different combinations of coastal impact models and elevation dataset inputs. The research suggests that it is valuable to invest in more accurate coastal impact models and elevation datasets in SLR adaptive conservation planning because this model–dataset combination could improve conservation outcomes under SLR. Less accurate coastal impact models, including ones created using coarser Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can still be useful when better data and models are not available or feasible, but results need to be appropriately assessed and communicated. A future research priority is to investigate how conservation priorities may vary among different SLR scenarios when different combinations of model‐data inputs are used.

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The impact of sea‐level rise onSnowyPlovers inFlorida: integrating geomorphological, habitat, and metapopulation models

Cited by 68 publications

References 44 publications

Coupled impacts of sea-level rise and tidal marsh restoration on endangered California clapper rail

Coupled impacts of sea-level rise and tidal marsh restoration on endangered California clapper rail

Piping Plover response to coastal storms occurring during the nonbreeding season

The conservation value of elevation data accuracy and model sophistication in reserve design under sea‐level rise

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