The Impact of News on US Household Inflation Expectations

Abstract

Analysis of monthly disaggregated data from 1978 to 2016 on US household inflation expectations reveals that exposure to news on inflation and monetary policy helps to explain inflation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, their perceptions of the effectiveness of government policies, their expectations of future interest rates and unemployment, and their sentiment levels. We find evidence of an asymmetric impact of news on inflation expectations particularly after 1983, with news on rising inflation and easier monetary policy having a stronger effect in comparison to news on lowering inflation and tightening monetary policy.