The impact of land ownership, firefighting, and reserve status on fire probability in California

Starrs, Carlin Frances; Butsic, Van; Stephens, Connor; Stewart, William C.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaaad1

Cited by 35 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Nonparametric models may be helpful as they allow conditional fire probability to vary with factors such as tree density and land ownership (e.g. Wilson et al, 2010;Starrs et al, 2018).…”

Section: Criticisms and Research Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tamm Review: Reforestation for resilience in dry western U.S. forests

North

Stevens

Greene

et al. 2019

Forest Ecology and Management

123

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“…Nonparametric models may be helpful as they allow conditional fire probability to vary with factors such as tree density and land ownership (e.g. Wilson et al, 2010;Starrs et al, 2018).…”

Section: Criticisms and Research Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tamm Review: Reforestation for resilience in dry western U.S. forests

North

Stevens

Greene

et al. 2019

Forest Ecology and Management

123

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“…Risk of reversal from wildfires was considered for conservation scenarios because severe fire seasons burned more than 2.5 Mha in British Columbia in 2017 and 2018 [54], and reserve status has been linked to wildfire probability in other regions [52]. Future severe fire seasons are expected for the interior and southern Cordillera of western Canada due to increasing temperatures [19,63], high fuel loads from Mountain Pine Beetle after-effects [62], and reduced fuel moisture from changing weather patterns [64].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change mitigation in British Columbia’s forest sector: GHG reductions, costs, and environmental impacts

Smyth

Lemprière

et al. 2020

Carbon Balance Manage

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Background The potential contributions from forest-based greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions need to be quantified to develop pathways towards net negative emissions. Here we present results from a comparative analysis that examined mitigation options for British Columbia’s forest sector. Mitigation scenarios were evaluated using a systems perspective that takes into account the changes in emissions and removals in forest ecosystems, in harvested wood product (HWP) carbon stocks, and in other sectors where wood products substitute for emission-intensive materials and fossil fuels. All mitigation activities were assessed relative to a forward-looking ‘business as usual’ baseline for three implementation levels. In addition to quantifying net GHG emission reductions, we assessed economic, and socio-economic impacts as well as other environmental indicators relating to forest species, age class, deadwood availability and future timber supply. We further considered risks of reversal for land-based scenarios, by assessing impacts of increasing future wildfires on stands that were not harvested. Results Our spatially explicit analyses of forest sector mitigation options demonstrated a cost-effective portfolio of regionally differentiated scenarios that directed more of the harvested wood to longer-lived wood products, stopped burning of harvest residues and instead produced bioenergy to displace fossil fuel burning, and reduced harvest levels in regions with low disturbance rates. Domestically, net GHG emissions were reduced by an average of -9 MtCO2e year−1 over 2020–2050 for a portfolio of mitigation activities at a default implementation level, with about 85% of the GHG emission reductions achieved below a cost of $50/tCO2e. Normalizing the net GHG reduction by changes in harvested wood levels permitted comparisons of the scenarios with different ambition levels, and showed that a 1 MtCO2 increase in cumulative harvested stemwood results in a 1 MtCO2e reduction in cumulative emissions, relative to the baseline, for the Higher Recovery scenario in 2070. Conclusions The analyses conducted in this study contribute to the global understanding of forest sector mitigation options by providing an integrated framework to synthesize the methods, assumptions, datasets and models needed to quantify mitigation activities using a systems approach. An understanding of economically feasible and socio-economically attractive mitigation scenarios along with trade offs for environmental indicators relating to species composition and age, helps decision makers with long-term planning for land sector contributions to GHG emission reduction efforts, and provides valuable information for stakeholder consultations.

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“…Managers cannot be certain that a wildfire will occur within the expected lifespan of a fuel treatment, so the probability of a wildfire occurring is an important factor to consider when attempting to predict the net carbon impact of fuel treatments (Finney 2005, Hurteau et al 2009, Campbell et al 2012, Krofcheck et al 2018). Starrs et al (2018) found annual wildfire probabilities in California forests ranging from 0.005 to 0.025 during the years 2000–2015. However, the probability of treatment–wildfire interactions is likely to increase as large wildfires become more frequent as climate is expected to be more conducive for wildfire spread (Westerling et al 2011, Collins 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By using actual conditions from nearby wildfires that posed substantial fire control problems, we believe predicted fire behavior may better characterize wildfire potential, as opposed to using conditions based on fire‐weather percentile thresholds. The vast majority of area burned by wildfires in California is burned by large fires, and it is reasonable to assume that if a treated area does experience a wildfire, it will likely be under intense weather conditions (Starrs et al 2018).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential wildfire and carbon stability in frequent‐fire forests in the Sierra Nevada: trade‐offs from a long‐term study

et al. 2020

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Forests are the largest terrestrial carbon stock, and disturbance regimes can have large effects on the structure and function of forests. Many dry temperate forests in the western United States are adapted to a regime of frequent, low‐to‐moderate severity fire. The disruption of this disturbance regime over the last century has shifted forest conditions, making them more susceptible to high‐severity fire. Fuel treatments have been shown to effectively reduce wildfire hazard, often with co‐benefits to ecological values. However, the effects of fuel treatments on forest carbon are complex, often characterized by direct costs (e.g., carbon emissions from prescribed fire) and wildfire‐contingent benefits (increased resistance of live tree carbon to wildfire). In this study, we employ risk‐sensitive carbon accounting and empirical data from a replicated field experiment to evaluate the stand‐scale carbon effects of four management regimes over a 14‐yr period in a historically frequent‐fire adapted forest. All three active treatment regimes immediately increased stable live tree carbon stocks over no‐treatment controls. In most contexts examined, mechanical‐only or no‐treatment controls will maximize expected total carbon stocks when incorporating wildfire risk and the carbon stability of live biomass, dead biomass, and offsite forest products, although we acknowledge our wildfire modeling may underestimate C losses, particularly in the control stands. Undoubtedly, many other ecosystem and social values besides carbon will be important factors that influence fuel and restoration treatments.

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The impact of land ownership, firefighting, and reserve status on fire probability in California

Cited by 35 publications

References 60 publications

Tamm Review: Reforestation for resilience in dry western U.S. forests

Tamm Review: Reforestation for resilience in dry western U.S. forests

Climate change mitigation in British Columbia’s forest sector: GHG reductions, costs, and environmental impacts

Potential wildfire and carbon stability in frequent‐fire forests in the Sierra Nevada: trade‐offs from a long‐term study

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