The Impact of Influenza of Different Etiologies on other ARVI in Children and Adults in 2014 to 2016

Карпова, Л. С.; Волик, К. М.; Smorodintseva, Elizaveta; Столярова, Т. П.; Поповцева, Н. М.; Столяров, К. А.

doi:10.31631/2073-3046-2018-17-35-47

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…• Респираторно-синцитиальная инфекция (RSV) -острое респираторное заболевание с преимущественным поражением нижних дыхательных путей и частым развитием пневмонии у детей раннего возраста [1]. Характерен зимне-весенний характер [23]. Наибольшей восприимчивостью к РС-инфекции обладают дети раннего возраста.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…• Аденовирусная инфекция (AdV) -острое респираторное заболевание с поражением слизистых оболочек дыхательных путей [1]. Характерна зимне-осенняя сезонность [23]. В основном аденовирусы поражает детей раннего возраста, обуславливают около 19 % случаев ОРВИ среди детей и 7 % среди взрослых [24].…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…• Парагрипп (PIV) -острое заболевание дыхательных путей с преимущественным поражением слизистых оболочек носа и гортани [1]. Парагриппозной инфекции свойственна зимне-осенняя сезонность [23]. Парагрипп обуславливает около 13 % случаев ОРВИ среди детей и 8 % среди взрослых [24].…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…• Коронавирусная инфекция (CoV) -острое вирусное заболевание респираторного тракта с полиморфной клинической картиной [1]. Коронавирусной инфекции свойственна зимне-весенняя цикличность [23]. Одинаковым образом поражают как детей, так и взрослых.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

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Transmission of Acute Respiratory Infections in a City: Agent-Based Approach

Vlad¹,

Sannikova²,

Romanyukha³

2020

Math.Biol.Bioinf.

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An incidence curve of acute respiratory infections in Moscow has three picks between September and April and reaches its maximum in January- February. The emergence of new strains of influenza A could account for only one pick a year. The most cases of common cold are caused by ubiquitous low pathogenic viruses. In order to simulate weekly fluctuation of incidence rate of acute respiratory illnesses we developed an agent-based model. It contains 10 millions agents with such attributes as sex, age, social status, levels of specific immune memory and lists of contacts. Each agent can contact with members of its household, colleagues or classmates. Through such contacts susceptible agent can be infected with one of seven circulating respiratory viruses. Viruses differ in their immunologic properties and assume to present influenza A virus, influenza B virus, parainfluenza, adenovirus, coronavirus, rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus. The rate of transmission depends on duration of contact, vulnerability of susceptible agent, infectivity of infected agent and air temperature. Proposed network of social interactions proved to be sufficiently detailed as it provided good fitting for observed incidence rate including periods of school holidays and winter public holidays. Additionally, the estimates of basic reproductive rate for the viruses confirm that all these viruses except new strains of influenza A are relatively harmless and unable to cause significant growth of acute respiratory infections morbidity.

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Section: Introductionunclassified

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Transmission of Acute Respiratory Infections in a City: Agent-Based Approach

Vlad¹,

Sannikova²,

Romanyukha³

2020

Math.Biol.Bioinf.

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Circulation of Respiratory Viruses in the City: Towards an Agent-Based Ecosystem model

Vlad,

Romanyukha,

Sannikova

2023

Bull Math Biol

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Territorial and Temporary Spread of COVID-19 in the World at the Beginning of the 2020 Pandemic

Карпова

Столяров

Поповцева

et al. 2021

Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention

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Relevance. COVID-19 remains a serious problem for all countries of the world, affecting all areas of public life. The brunt of the problem falls on health care. The new coronavirus infection has raised many questions, in particular regarding its epidemiologyAim. Determine the sequence of the global spread of COVID-19 at the beginning of the 2020 pandemic and the possible influence of seasonality on its distribution.Materials and methods. Data on the countries of the Northern and Southern hemispheres of the sites «Our World in Data» from the section «Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases». Стопкоронавирус.рф, Johns Hopkins University were used. The analysis of the spread of COVID-19 in the world was carried out based on data on the incidence and deaths from COVID-19 by climatogeographic zones.Results and discussion. The sequence of the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 across countries and continents at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 has been determined. The similarity of the global spread of COVID-19 and "seasonal" influenza A(H3N2) epidemics indicates the spread of these infections along the primary migration routes of the population. The global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic virus, as well as influenza A(H1N1), was sufficient for 1–1.5 months. The COVID-19 pandemic began in the Northern Hemisphere in the spring and summer, but atypical seasonality was often observed at the beginning of influenza pandemics. On the other hand, data on the influence of seasonality on the spread of COVID-19 were obtained: the highest incidence in the Northern Hemisphere countries was in the winter, and in the Southern Hemisphere countries, with reverse seasonality, a high incidence was observed already in the summer months. Therefore, it will be possible to make a final conclusion about the seasonality of this infection in the following years.

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The Impact of Influenza of Different Etiologies on other ARVI in Children and Adults in 2014 to 2016

Cited by 4 publications

References 5 publications

Transmission of Acute Respiratory Infections in a City: Agent-Based Approach

Transmission of Acute Respiratory Infections in a City: Agent-Based Approach

Circulation of Respiratory Viruses in the City: Towards an Agent-Based Ecosystem model

Territorial and Temporary Spread of COVID-19 in the World at the Beginning of the 2020 Pandemic

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