We propose an algorithm for modeling scenarios for newly diagnosed cases of COVID-19
in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The algorithm is based on treating incomplete epidemiological
data and solving the inverse problem of reconstructing the parameters of the agent-based model
(ABM) using the set of available epidemiological data. The main tool for constructing the ABM is
the Covasim open library. In the
event of a drastic change in the situation (appearance of a new strain, removal or introduction of
restrictive measures, etc.), the model parameters are updated taking into account additional
information for the previous month (online data assimilation). The inverse problem is solved by
stochastic global optimization (of tree-structured Parzen estimators). As an example, we give two
scenarios of COVID-19 propagation calculated on December 12, 2021 for the period up to January
20, 2022. The scenario that took into account the New Year holidays (published on December 12,
2021 on
http://covid19-modeling.ru
) almost coincided with
what happened in reality (the error was 0.2%).