The Impact of Inflation Anchor Strength and Monetary Policy Transparency on Inflation During the Period of Emerging Market Volatility in Summer 2018

Abstract

This paper examines the link between foreign exchange dynamics and inflation in developing countries with respect to the degree of inflation expectation anchoring they employed in 2011-2019. Particular attention is paid to analysis of the inflationary consequences of the considerable weakness of emerging markets' currencies in summer 2018. Analysis of 2011-2019 confirms that inflation accelerates less in reaction to FX weakness in countries with more anchored inflation expectations. However, similar statistically significant differences were not found during the shock of 2018. One way of anchoring inflation expectations is to make monetary policy more transparent. We have updated the central bank transparency index introduced in Dincer and Eichengreen (2007) and confirm that central bank transparency in emerging markets has considerably improved in recent years. Inflation expectations in these countries have been approaching inflation targets as central banks' policies become more transparent. We also provide some suggestions for improving the quality of monetary policy communication by the Bank of Russia in order to increase its transparency and consequently contribute to a further decrease in inflation expectations.

Assessment of the Clarity of Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Communication by Neural Network Approach

“…In Russian studies (for example, Evdokimova et al, 2019;Kuznetsova and Merzlyakov, 2015), the index proposed by Eichengreen (2008, 2014) is used to assess the transparency of the Bank of Russia (see Section 2.4. and Appendix 5). However, this index does not take into account the current monetary policy regime and, therefore, misses distinctions that are important for an inflation targeting regime.…”

“…Bulíř et al (2013), as well asBenchimol et al (2020), point out that the clarity of central bank communication cannot be measured by a simple single-dependent-variable model; for an at least partly relevant definition of the level of clarity of communication, several parameters must be taken into account.11 For example,, Hungary -14 (estimates for 2019; seeEvdokimova et al, 2019).…”

Formation of economic agents’ inflationary expectations and central bank policy effectiveness: Еxperimental approach

“…Эволюция подходов к моделированию ожиданий агентов относительно уровня инфляции, начиная с исторически первых попыток формализации процессов их формирования в условиях гиперинфляции, обсуждается, например, в работе . В рамках модельного подхода в последние годы активно ведутся весьма информативные исследования якорения ожиданий агентов и их влияния на уровень инфляции в условиях как российских, так и зарубежных реалий (см., например: [Evdokimova, Zhirnov, Klaver, 2019]).…”