The Impact of Economic Development on Political Development in Authoritarian States: An Initial Study of Interest in Politics Across Social Classes inChina

Abstract

Over the past several decades, modernization theory has offered much insight into the conditions necessary for a democratic transition. Proponents of this theory suggest that a link exists between economic development and a democratic transition. Economic development leads to a stronger middle class that develops a greater interest in politics and places demands upon the government, which may lead to regime concessions and an eventual democratic transition. Emerging research, however, suggests there is a link between economic development and the increase in the interest in politics within the working class. This study seeks to answer the question of how economic development impacts interest in politics across social classes in modern authoritarian states. I use ordered logistical regression to test hypotheses derived from these propositions. The results have important implications for understanding the relationship between economic development and political development.

The Impact of Economic Development on Political Interest Across Social Classes in China: Turning the Chinese Dream into a Chinese Reality?

“…1 As indicated in Table 1, Owen [14] found that political interest was not differentiated across the middle and working classes. In other words, all of the social class measures were statistically insignificant across 24 regions of China.…”

“…In other words, all of the social class measures were statistically insignificant across 24 regions of China. Owen [14] suggested that the working class hypothesis offered by Rueschemeyer et al [18] sufficiently explained the absence of statistical significance on the middle class measures. Moreover, the economic and political conditions in China may no longer be conducive for mass organization, resulting in a working class that is now more fragmented, internalized, and localized than ever before, suggested Owen [14].…”

“…In conclusion, while most of these studies are limited by geographic and social class scopes, Owen's [14] study included comparability across both scopes. Owen's [14] primary finding, however, was undifferentiated political interest across the social classes.…”

“…With that stated, a recent study over 24 regions of China found that political interest was not differentiated across the social classes [14]. While a significant step forward, Owen [14] only investigated one particular point in time.…”

“…With that stated, a recent study over 24 regions of China found that political interest was not differentiated across the social classes [14]. While a significant step forward, Owen [14] only investigated one particular point in time. In this study, I expand the test to a longer timeframe, from 1990 to 2005, to understand whether or not an undifferentiated class-based political interest is more of a permanent characteristic of modern China.…”