The Impact of CO2 – Induced Warming on Downhill Skiing in the Laurentians

Abstract

À l'aide des deux scénarios de variation climatique retenus par le Centre d'étude canadien sur le climat, les auteurs tentent de cerner quel serait l'effet, sur la pratique du ski alpin dans les basses Laurentides, des changements de température et de précipitation prévisibles selon ces scénarios. Ces derniers prévoient une augmentation de la moyenne hivernale des précipitations et des températures s'échelonnant respectivement entre 0 et 16% et 7,6 et 9,3° F (4,2 et 5,2° C). De tels changements pourraient abréger la saison de ski et occasionner des pertes monétaires substantielles voire même entraîner la disparition de cette industrie dans la région. Il semble par ailleurs que la pratique du ski alpin soit moins sensible aux conditions appréhendées dans l'un des deux scénarios. Signalons également que certaines analyses de sensibilité montrent que la durée de la saison de ski n'est que peu affectée par une augmentation de la température moyenne hivernale inférieure à 4° F (2,2° C).Using the two climatic change scenarios selected by the Canadian Climate Centre, an attempt has been made, using snowcover suitability percentiles, to estimate the resilience and sensitivity of downhill skiing in the Lower Laurentians to the suggested changes in temperature and precipitation. The scenarios suggest an average winter increase in the range of 0 to 16 percent for precipitation and 7.6 to 9.3° F (4.2 to 5.2° C) for temperature. These changes could possibly result in a reduction of the marginally reliable and reliable ski seasons in the Laurentians by 40 to 89 percent respectively with a minimum financial loss of 10$ million and a maximum loss of virtual elimination of the ski industry in this area. It would appear then that downhill skiing in the Lower Laurentians has some resilience to the suggested conditions of one scenario but not the other. In addition, the sensitivity analyses indicate that the ski season length in this part of Canada is little affected until the average winter temperature increases by 4° F (2.2° C)

Climate change analogue analysis of ski tourism in the northeastern USA

“…When snowmaking was accounted for, Scott et al (2003Scott et al ( , 2006 found that the vulnerability of ski areas in the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec was reduced substantially compared to that reported in earlier studies that did not include snowmaking (McBoyle & Wall 1987, 1992, Lamothe & Périard Consultants 1988.…”

Resilience and sustainability: a complementary relationship? Towards a practical conceptual model for the sustainability–resilience nexus in tourism

“…This assumption has been shaken by questions of system complexity (McCool, 2015), global environmental risks (Young, Higham, & Reis, 2014) and natural disasters (Faulkner, 2001). The relationships linking tourism development and the global climate crisis, for example, were first brought to the attention of the academic community by Wall in the 1980s (McBoyle &Wall, 1987;Wall, 1993;Wall, Harrison, Kinnaird, McBoyle, & Quinlan, 1986).…”

Ecosophy and tourism: Rethinking a mountain resort

“…The most detailed studies cover areas such as the European Alps (Breiling & Charamza, 1999;Elsasser & Buerki, 2002;Elsasser & Messerli, 2001;Fazzinni, Fratianni, Biancoti, Biscu, & Zasso, 2003;König & Abegg, 1997), North America (Brotton & Wall, 1993;Hamilton, Rohall, Brown, Hayward, & Keim, 2003;Harrison, Kinnaird, McBoyle, Quinlan, & Wall, 1986;Lipski & McBoyle, 1991;Lynch, McBoyle, & Wall, 1981;, 1987Ordower, 1995;Scott, McBoyle, & Mills, 2003;Scott, McBoyle, Mills, & Minogue, 2004) and the Antipodes (Barringer, 1989;Galloway, 1988;König, 1998). The effects of climate change in a Scottish winter sports context also feature in the literature, (Perry, 1971(Perry, , 1972, but much of this work is set within broader discussions about climate change effects yearround in Scotland (Harrison, Winterbottom, & Sheppard, 1999).…”